Finance and Economics Discussion Series

From Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
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2016-071: Mutual Fund Flows, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

Ayelen Banegas, Gabriel Montes-Rojas and Lucas Siga

2016-070: Benchmarking Operational Risk Models

Filippo Curti, Ibrahim Ergen, Minh Le, Marco Migueis and Rob T. Stewart

2016-069: The Bank as Grim Reaper: Debt Composition and Bankruptcy Thresholds

Mark Carey and Michael Gordy

2016-068: Gauging the Ability of the FOMC to Respond to Future Recessions

David L. Reifschneider

2016-067: Financial Stability and Optimal Interest-Rate Policy

Andrea Ajello, Thomas Laubach, David Lopez-Salido and Taisuke Nakata

2016-066: Sectoral Dynamics and Business Cycles

Manjola Tase

2016-065: Accurate Evaluation of Expected Shortfall for Linear Portfolios with Elliptically Distributed Risk Factors

Dobrislav Dobrev, Travis Nesmith and Dong Hwan Oh

2016-064: Trading Relationships in the OTC Market for Secured Claims: Evidence from Triparty Repos

Song Han and Kleopatra Nikolaou

2016-063r1: The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells

Hie Joo Ahn

2016-062: International Aspects of Central Banking: Diplomacy and Coordination

Robert B. Kahn and Ellen Meade

2016-061: The Risk-Adjusted Monetary Policy Rule

Taisuke Nakata and Sebastian Schmidt

2016-060: The Political Origin of Home Bias: The Case of Europe

Filippo De Marco and Marco Macchiavelli

2016-059: Did the Founding of the Federal Reserve Affect the Vulnerability of the Interbank System to Systemic Risk?

Mark Carlson and David Wheelock

2016-058: Does Anyone Listen when Politicians Talk? The Effect of Political Commentaries on Policy Rate Decisions and Expectations

Selva Demiralp, Sharmila King and Chiara Scotti

2016-057: Bank Capital Regulations Around the World: What Explains the Differences?

Gazi Kara

2016-056: For Better and for Worse? Effects of Access to High-Cost Consumer Credit

Christine L. Dobridge

2016-055: Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, J. Nellie Liang and Michele Modugno

2016-054: Optimal Unemployment Insurance and International Risk Sharing

Stéphane Moyen, Nikolai Stähler and Fabian Winkler

2016-053: Labor Force Transitions at Older Ages: Burnout, Recovery, and Reverse Retirement

Lindsay Jacobs and Suphanit Piyapromdee

2016-052: Funding Liquidity Risk and the Cross-section of MBS Returns

Yuriy Kitsul and Juan Ochoa

2016-051: Occupational Choice, Retirement, and the Effects of Disability Insurance

Lindsay Jacobs

2016-050: Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

Nathan Foley-Fisher, Borghan Nezami Narajabad and Stephane Verani

2016-049: Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs

Dario Caldara and Edward Herbst

2016-048: News versus Sentiment: Predicting Stock Returns from News Stories

Steven Heston and Nitish R. Sinha

2016-047: Why are Inventory-Sales Ratios at U.S. Auto Dealerships so High?

Wendy E. Dunn and Daniel J. Vine

2016-046: Do Rising Top Incomes Lead to Increased Borrowing in the Rest of the Distribution?

Jeffrey Thompson

2016-045: Accounting for Productivity Dispersion over the Business Cycle

Robert Kurtzman and David Zeke

2016-044: Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition

Michele Modugno, Barış Soybilgen and Ege Yazgan

2016-043: Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis

Francois Gourio, Todd Messer and Michael Siemer

2016-042: Credit Default Swaps in General Equilibrium: Spillovers, Credit Spreads, and Endogenous Default

Matthew Darst and Ehraz Refayet

2016-041: What Does It Take to List Abroad? The Role of Global Underwriters

Cecilia R. Caglio, Kathleen Hanley and Jennifer Marietta-Westberg

2016-040: A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks

Minchul Shin and Molin Zhong

2016-039: Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

Yi Che, Yi Lu, Justin Pierce, Peter Schott and Zhigang Tao

2016-038: The Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax on Current and Future Generations

Stephie Fried, Kevin Novan and William Peterman

2016-037: Political Conflict and Foreign Portfolio Investment: Evidence from North Korean Attacks

Jeffrey R. Gerlach and Youngsuk Yook

2016-036: A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?

Daniela Bragoli and Michele Modugno

2016-035: Inflation Expectations and the Stabilization of Inflation: Alternative Hypotheses

Jeremy J. Nalewaik

2016-034: Microstructure Invariance in U.S. Stock Market Trades

Albert Kyle, Anna Obizhaeva and Tugkan Tuzun

2016-033: A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound

Benjamin K. Johannsen and Elmar Mertens

2016-032: Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks

Alex Hsu, Erica X. N. Li and Francisco Palomino

2016-031: FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Great Recession

Wayne Passmore and Shane Sherlund

2016-030: Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions

Zheng Sun, Ashley W. Wang and Lu Zheng

2016-029: Banking Consolidation and Small Firm Financing for Research and Development

Andrew C. Chang

2016-028: State Capacity and Public Goods: Institutional Change, Human Capital, and Growth in Early Modern Germany

Jeremiah E. Dittmar and Ralf R. Meisenzahl

2016-027: From Which Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Can Investors Profit? Evidence from Model-Based Priors

Mathias S. Kruttli

2016-026: Bank regulation under fire sale externalities

Gazi Kara and S. Mehmet Ozsoy

2016-025: The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Firm Financing Constraints: Evidence from the Maturity Extension Program

Nathan Foley-Fisher, Rodney Ramcharan and Edison Yu

2016-024: Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets

Matteo Barigozzi, Marco Lippi and Matteo Luciani

2016-023: Modelling Overnight RRP Participation

Alyssa G. Anderson and Jeff W. Huther

2016-022: Time-varying Volatility and the Power Law Distribution of Stock Returns

Missaka Warusawitharana

2016-021: What are the Perceived Barriers to Homeownership for Young Adults?

Samuel Dodini, Jeff Larrimore and Jenny Schuetz

2016-020: Does Zoning Help or Hinder Transit-Oriented (Re)Development?

Genevieve Giuliano, Jenny Schuetz and Eun Jin Shin

2016-019: The Role of Learning for Asset Prices and Business Cycles

Fabian Winkler

2016-018: Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration, and Error Correction Mechanisms

Matteo Barigozzi, Marco Lippi and Matteo Luciani

2016-17: Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem

David Byrne, John Fernald and Marshall B. Reinsdorf

2016-16: Federal Reserve Board Statistical Releases: a Publications History

Sian L. Seldin

2016-15: Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market

Raven S. Molloy, Christopher Smith, Riccardo Trezzi and Abigail Wozniak

2016-14: Deadlines and Matching

Garth Baughman

2016-13: Fiscal Stimulus and Firms: A Tale of Two Recessions

Christine L. Dobridge

2016-12: Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics

Hie Joo Ahn and James Hamilton

2016-11: Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

Thomas Laubach and John Williams

2016-10: Student Loans and Homeownership

Alvaro Mezza, Daniel R. Ringo, Shane Sherlund and Kamila Sommer

2016-9: The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound

Timothy S. Hills, Taisuke Nakata and Sebastian Schmidt

2016-8: Policy Externalities and Banking Integration

Michael Smolyansky

2016-7: Interpreting Shocks to the Relative Price of Investment with a Two-Sector Model

Luca Guerrieri, Dale Henderson and Jinill Kim

2016-6: To Cut or Not to Cut? On the Impact of Corporate Taxes on Employment and Income

Alexander Ljungqvist and Michael Smolyansky

2016-5: The Resolution of a Systemically Important Insurance Company during the Great Depression

Jonathan Rose

2016-4: Is Los Angeles Becoming Transit Oriented?

Genevieve Giuliano, Jenny Schuetz and Eun Jin Shin

2016-3: Can a Bank Run Be Stopped? Government Guarantees and the Run on Continental Illinois

Mark Carlson and Jonathan Rose

2016-2: Predicting Operational Loss Exposure Using Past Losses

Filippo Curti and Marco Migueis

2016-001r1: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States During and After the Great Recession

Bruce Fallick, Daniel Villar Vallenas and William Wascher

2015-119: Un-Fortunate Sons: Effects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on the Next Generation's Labor Market

Sarena Goodman and Adam Isen

2015-118: Do long-haul truckers undervalue future fuel savings?

Jacob Adenbaum, Adam Copeland and John Stevens

2015-117: Taxing Capital? The Importance of How Human Capital is Accumulated

William Peterman

2015-116: Estimating (Markov-Switching) VAR Models without Gibbs Sampling: A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach

Mark Bognanni and Edward Herbst

2015-115: Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?

Minchul Shin and Molin Zhong

2015-114: The Dynamics of Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage Default: A Structural Estimation

Hanming Fang, You Suk Kim and Wenli Li

2015-113: Does Exporting Improve Matching? Evidence from French Employer-Employee Data

Matilde Bombardini, Gianluca Orefice and Maria D. Tito

2015-112: Credit Risk, Liquidity and Lies

Thomas King and Kurt Lewis

2015-111: Old-Fashioned Deposit Runs

Jonathan Rose

2015-110: Risky Mortgages, Bank Leverage and Credit Policy

Francesco Ferrante

2015-109: Welfare Evaluation in a Heterogeneous Agent Model: How Representative is the CES Representative Consumer?

Maria D. Tito

2015-108: Every Little Bit Counts: The Impact of High-speed Internet on the Transition to College

Lisa Dettling, Sarena Goodman and Jonathan Smith

2015-107: Financial Incentives, Hospital Care, and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Fair Pricing Laws

Michael M. Batty and Benedic N. Ippolito

2015-106: How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?

Brett McCully, Karen Pence and Daniel J. Vine

2015-105: Measuring Ambiguity Aversion

A. Gallant, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar and Hening Liu

2015-104: Information Disclosures, Default Risk, and Bank Value

Ilknur Zer

2015-103: Information, Contract Design, and Unsecured Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Mailings

Song Han, Benjamin Keys and Geng Li

2015-102: Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income

Andrew C. Chang and Phillip Li

2015-101: Advertising and Risk Selection in Health Insurance Markets

Naoki Aizawa and You Suk Kim

2015-100: Nowcasting Indonesia

Matteo Luciani, Madhavi Pundit, Arief Ramayandi and Giovanni Veronese

2015-99: Monetary Policy, Incomplete Information, and the Zero Lower Bound

Christopher Gust, Benjamin K. Johannsen and David Lopez-Salido

2015-98: A Trillion Dollar Question: What Predicts Student Loan Delinquencies?

Alvaro Mezza and Kamila Sommer

2015-97: Macroeconomic News Announcements, Systemic Risk, Financial Market Volatility and Jumps

Xin Huang

2015-96: Demand Shock, Liquidity Management, and Firm Growth during the Financial Crisis

Vojislav Maksimovic, Mandy Tham and Youngsuk Yook

2015-95: Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-run and Long-run Risks

Olesya Grishchenko, Zhaogang Song and Hao Zhou

2015-94: Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tohōku Earthquake

Christoph Boehm, Aaron Flaaen and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

2015-93: Regime-Switching Models for Estimating Inflation Uncertainty

Jeremy J. Nalewaik

2015-92: A Historical Welfare Analysis of Social Security: Whom Did the Program Benefit?

William Peterman and Kamila Sommer

2015-91: Financial Stress and Equilibrium Dynamics in Money Markets

Zeynep Senyuz and Emre Yoldas