The measurement of consumer expectations using survey data

Martha Starr ()

No 1999-17, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Surveys of consumers collect considerable information on consumer expectations. However, the simple categorical structure of the questions -- such as \"Do you expect your income to rise, fall, or stay the same?\" -- makes their value for research uncertain. This paper analyzes the information content of the survey measures. I draw on Manski's finding that, while categorical questions do not identify the probability of an event occurring, they do provide information on probability bounds. I analyze data from two well-known surveys, showing that, although the bounds are often wide, for some measures they move closely with the series they are intended to track or predict.

Keywords: Consumer; behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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