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Economic volatility and financial markets: the case of mortgage-backed securities

Gaetano Antinolfi () and Celso Brunetti ()

No 2013-42, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: The volatility of aggregate economic activity in the United States decreased markedly in the mid eighties. The decrease involved several components of GDP and has been linked to a more stable economic environment, identified by smaller shocks and more effective policy, and a diverse set of innovations related to inventory management as well as financial markets. We document a negative relation between the volatility of GDP and some of its components and one such financial development: the emergence of mortgage-backed securities. We also document that this relationship changed sign, from negative to positive, in the early 2000's.

Date: 2013
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