The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations and its Implications

Lena Dräger, Michael Lamla and Damjan Pfajfar

No 2020-054, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Using a new consumer survey dataset, we document a new dimension of heterogeneity in inflation expectations that has implications for consumption and saving decisions as well as monetary policy transmission. We show that German households with the same inflation expectations differently assess whether the level of expected inflation and of nominal interest rates is appropriate or too high/too low. The `hidden heterogeneity' in expectations stemming from these opinions is related to demographic characteristics and affects current and planned spending in addition to the Euler equation effect of the perceived real interest rate. Furthermore, these differences in opinions affect German households differently depending on whether they are renters or homeowners.

Keywords: Macroeconomic expectations; Monetary policy perceptions; Survey microdata (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E31 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29
Date: 2020-07-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-54

DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.054

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