Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions

John Coglianese and Brendan M. Price
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John Coglianese: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/john-m-coglianese.htm
Brendan M. Price: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/brendan-m-price.htm

No 2020-084, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age US workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses during the off-season. Lost earnings are (i) driven mainly by repeated separations from the same employer; (ii) not recouped at other firms; (iii) partly offset by unemployment benefits; and (iv) amplified by concurrent drops in partners' earnings. On net, household income falls by about 80 cents for each $1 lost in own earnings.

Keywords: Seasonality; Seasonal employment; Job loss; Household income; Household labor dynamics; Unemployment; Unemployment insurance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D10 E32 J63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57
Date: 2020-10-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ias, nep-lab and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-84

DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.084

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