Output and inflation in the long run

Neil Ericsson, John Irons and Ralph W. Tryon

No 687, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Cross-country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in sample, temporal aggregation, and omission of consequential variables in levels. This paper demonstrates some implications of these mis-specifications, both analytically and empirically. In particular, for most G-7 countries, annual time series of inflation and the log-level of output are cointegrated, thus rejecting the existence of a long-run relation between output growth and inflation. Typically, output and inflation are positively related in these cointegrating relationships: a price markup model helps interpret this surprising feature.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Economic development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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