Details about Neil R. Ericsson

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://www.federalreserve.gov/research/staff/ericssonneilr.htm
Phone:	202-452-3709
Postal address:	P.O. Box 18646 Washington, DC 20036-8646 USA
Workplace:	Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), (more information at EDIRC) Department of Economics, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC) Research Program on Forecasting, Department of Economics, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Neil R. Ericsson.

Last updated 2017-11-30. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: per17

---

Jump to Journal Articles Edited books

Working Papers

2017

1. How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
   Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting (2017) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
2. Milton Friedman and Data Adjustment
   IFDP Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2016

3. Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice: An Interview with David F. Hendry
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
   Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting (2016) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
4. Predicting Fed Forecasts
   IFDP Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Reviews on Global Economics (2017)

2015

5. Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)
   Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2015)
   See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2016)

2012

6. Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting View citations (4)
   Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2012) View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article in International Advances in Economic Research (2012)

2008

7. Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
8. The fragility of sensitivity analysis: an encompassing perspective
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2008)

2005

9. General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (45)

2004

10. The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)

2001

11. A retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and his contributions to econometrics
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
12. Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (12)

2000

13. Constructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Econometrics Journal (1999)
14. Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration
    Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society View citations (2)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in Econometrics Journal (2002)
15. Output and Inflation in the Long Run
    Amherst Economic Papers, Amherst College, Department of Economics View citations (9)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2000) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2001)
16. Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)

1998

17. A framework for economic forecasting
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in Econometrics Journal (1998)
18. Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1998)

1997

19. The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article in Scandinavian Journal of Economics (1998)

1996

20. Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (12)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (1998)
21. Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index
    Memorandum, Oslo University, Department of Economics View citations (45)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (48)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (1996)

1995

22. Modelling Inflation in Australia
    RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia View citations (18)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1995) View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1998)
23. The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (90)

1994

24. Conditional and structural error correction models
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1995)

1993

25. Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1996)
26. Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)
27. Dollarization in Argentina
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (30)

1992

28. The power of cointegration tests
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (445)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (1992)

1991

29. Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Policy Modeling (1992)
30. PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article in Brazilian Review of Econometrics (1990)
31. Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: an exposition, extensions, and illustration
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Policy Modeling (1992)

1990

32. Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
33. Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (1991)

1989

34. An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (33)
35. Encompassing and rational expectations: how sequential corroboration can imply refutation
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (1999)
36. Exact and approximate multi-period mean-square forecast errors for dynamic econometric models
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)

1988

37. Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)

1987

38. An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1990)
39. Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

1986

40. Post-simulation analysis of Monte Carlo experiments: interpreting Pesaran's (1974) study of non-nested hypothesis test statistics
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Studies (1986)

1985

41. Assertion without empirical basis: an econometric appraisal of monetary trends in... the United Kingdom, by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
42. Conditional econometric modelling: an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (7)

Undated

43. An early version of The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement
    Home Pages, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics
44. The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run
    Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Journal Articles

2017

1. Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (2), 523-542 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2016)
2. How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (2), 543-559 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2017)
3. Interpreting estimates of forecast bias
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (2), 563-568
4. Predicting Fed Forecasts
   Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 2017, 6, 175-180
   See also Working Paper (2016)

2016

5. Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, (2), 571-583 View citations (17)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
6. Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector
   Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2016, 20, (4), 377-398

2012

7. Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting
   International Advances in Economic Research, 2012, 18, (3), 247-258 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2012)

2008

8. Comment on "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World" (by Michael Clements and David Hendry)
   Capitalism and Society, 2008, 3, (2), 1-18 View citations (1)
9. The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective
   Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 70, (s1), 895-914 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2008)

2004

10. THE ET INTERVIEW: PROFESSOR DAVID F. HENDRY: Interviewed by Neil R. Ericsson
    Econometric Theory, 2004, 20, (04), 743-804 View citations (2)

2003

11. Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 22, (2), 185-211 View citations (29)

2002

12. Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration
    Econometrics Journal, 2002, 5, (2), 285-318 View citations (130)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2001

13. Output and inflation in the long run
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, (3), 241-253 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

1999

14. Contructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela
    Econometrics Journal, 1999, 2, (2), 226-240 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
15. Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation
    Empirical Economics, 1999, 24, (1), 1-21 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (1989)

1998

16. A framework for economic forecasting
    Econometrics Journal, 1998, 1, (ConferenceIssue), C228-C266 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
17. Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece
    Empirical Economics, 1998, 23, (3), 417-436 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper (1996)
18. Empirical modeling of money demand
    Empirical Economics, 1998, 23, (3), 295-315 View citations (69)
19. Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1998, 16, (4), 370-87 View citations (64)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
20. Friedman and Schwartz (1982) revisited: Assessing annual and phase-average models of money demand in the United Kingdom
    Empirical Economics, 1998, 23, (3), 401-415 View citations (1)
21. Modeling Inflation in Australia
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1998, 16, (4), 433-49 View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
22. The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993
    Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1998, 100, (1), 289-324 View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper (1997)

1996

23. Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks
    Journal of Econometrics, 1996, 70, (1), 187-220 View citations (97)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
24. Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 58, (4), 765-90 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1995

25. Conditional and structural error correction models
    Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 69, (1), 159-171 View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper (1994)

1993

26. Encompassing the Forecasts of U.S. Trade Balance Models
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993, 75, (1), 19-31 View citations (21)
27. Testing for Common Features: Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1993, 11, (4), 380-83 View citations (3)

1992

28. Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: A synopsis
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1992, 14, (4), 395-400 View citations (17)
29. Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1992, 14, (3), 251-280 View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper (1991)
30. Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1992, 14, (4), 465-495 View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper (1991)
31. The Power of Cointegration Tests
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1992, 54, (3), 325-48 View citations (469)
    See also Working Paper (1992)

1991

32. An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz
    American Economic Review, 1991, 81, (1), 8-38 View citations (36)
33. Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States
    European Economic Review, 1991, 35, (4), 833-881 View citations (131)
    See also Working Paper (1990)
34. Monte Carlo Methodology and the Finite Sample Properties of Instrumental Variables Statistics for Testing Nested and Non-nested Hypotheses
    Econometrica, 1991, 59, (5), 1249-77 View citations (12)

1990

35. An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures
    Journal of Econometrics, 1990, 43, (3), 275-292 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (1987)
36. Pc-Give and David Hendry'S Econometric Methodology
    Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 1990, 10, (1) View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (1991)

1986

37. Post-simulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-nested Hypothesis Test Statistics
    Review of Economic Studies, 1986, 53, (4), 691-707
    See also Working Paper (1986)

1983

38. Asymptotic Properties of Instrumental Variables Statistics for Testing Non-Nested Hypotheses
    Review of Economic Studies, 1983, 50, (2), 287-304 View citations (11)

1982

39. Testing Linear versus Logarithmic Regression Models: A Comment
    Review of Economic Studies, 1982, 49, (3), 477-481

1978

40. The Economic Feasibility of Shale Oil: An Activity Analysis
    Bell Journal of Economics, 1978, 9, (2), 457-487

Edited books

2005

1. General-to-Specific Modelling, vol Two volume set
   Books, Edward Elgar Publishing View citations (6)

2003

2. Understanding Economic Forecasts, vol 1
   MIT Press Books, The MIT Press View citations (3)

1995

3. Testing Exogeneity
   OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press