EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis

Neil Ericsson ()

No 2015-003, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee’s views about the U.S. economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC’s meetings. These indexes provide insights on the FOMC’s deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington’s analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC’s views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff’s Greenbook forecasts of the U.S. real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook’s public release.

Keywords: Autometrics; bias; Fed; financial crisis; FOMC; forecasts; GDP; Great Recession; Greenbook; impulse indicator saturation; projections; Tealbook; United States. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2015-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2015-003.pdf First version, 2015 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis (2015) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-003

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by GW Economics Department ().

 
Page updated 2023-02-02
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-003