 Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisisInternational Journal of Forecasting, 2016, vol. 32, issue 2, 571-583 Abstract: Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee’s views about the US economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC’s meetings. These indexes provide insights into the FOMC’s deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington’s analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC’s views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff’s Greenbook forecasts of the US real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook’s public release. Keywords: Autometrics; Bias; Fed; Financial crisis; FOMC; Forecasts; GDP; Great Recession; Greenbook; Impulse indicator saturation; Projections; Tealbook; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:2:p:571-583 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.09.007 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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