Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting

Neil Ericsson

No 695, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.

Keywords: Forecasting; Econometrics; Econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ets
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2000/695/default.htm (text/html)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2000/695/ifdp695.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgif:695

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier ().