Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section

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53: An evaluation of the forecast performance of alternative models of inflation

James E. Glassman and David J. Stockton

52: The effect of relative prices changes on capital utilization and replacement in a Cobb-Douglas technology

Stephen Oliner

51: The putty-clay perspective on the capital-energy complementarity debate

Charles S. Struckmeyer

50: The problem of inference in consumer surveys

Susan Weller Burch and Stephen E. Gordon

49: Evidence on the causes of the rising dispersion of relative wages

Edward Montgomery and David J. Stockton

48: Unbiased estimation of the inflationary effects of relative price disturbances

David J. Stockton

47: A keynesian approach to the relationship between relative price dispersion and aggregate price movement

David J. Stockton

46: The influence of exchange rate movements on inflation in the United States

James E. Glassman

45: Recent changes in income and the tax distribution: implications for personal consumption expenditures

Susan Weller Burch

44: Persistence effects in labor force participation

Robert S. Gay and William Wascher

43: A small econometric model for predicting residential construction activity: some preliminary results

James L. Freund

42: The effect of cohort size on human capital investment and earnings growth

Frank E. Nothaft

41: Adjustable-rate home mortgages and the demand for mortgage credit

John L. Goodman

40: The impact of energy price shocks on capital formation and economic growth in a putty-clay technology

Charles S. Struckmeyer

39: Distributions and projection errors: forecasting the probability of extreme electricity demand

David L. Reifschneider

38: Union contract concessions and their implications for union wage determination

Robert S. Gay

37: Beast: a small macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy

David L. Reifschneider

36: Equilibrium modeling and the petroleum industry: a case study of the residual fuel oil market

David Jay Green

35: Production planning, real interest rates, and inventory investment

Che S. Tsao

34: Productivity and the NIIRU (and other Phillips curve issues)

Steven Braun

33: Inflation and unemployment in the United States: recent experience and policies

Peter B. Clark

32: An evaluation of alternative price forecasting models: theoretical considerations

James E. Glassman and David J. Stockton

31: Observations on the recent decline in the personal saving rate

Edward Montgomery

30: The theory and econometrics of reduced-form nominal income and price equations

James E. Glassman and David J. Stockton

29: Domestic automobile demand

Laura S. Rubin

28: Cyclicality in demand for new housing units and \"shortfalls\" in production

James L. Freund

27: Asymmetric information expectations, and the dynamics of inflation and relative price changes

B. Dianne Pauls

26: The aging U.S. auto stock: implications for demand

Susan Weller Burch

25: A small scale model of natural gas markets: responses to alternative deregulation scenarios and oil price changes

David Jay Green

24: A dissection of personal saving behavior

Lawrence Slifman

23: Younger households and aggregate expenditures decision

Susan Weller Burch

22: Inflation and housing: a review of recent experience

James L. Freund

21: A re-examination of the relationship between capital expenditures and a distributed lag of capital appropriations: 1953-1981

Garry Schinasi

20: A logit model of the selection of a space heating fuel by builders of new single family housing

David Jay Green

19: The individual income tax: implications of progressivity for labor supply

Andrea L. Kusko

18: Empirical evidence on the formation of sales expectations by manufacturers

F. Owen Irvine

17: Social security and saving

Charles Steindel

14: Specification errors and the stock-adjustment model: why estimated speeds-of-adjustment are too slow in inventory equations

F. Owen Irvine

13: The bias in lagged dependent variable coefficients introduced by seasonal adjustment

F. Owen Irvine

12: The effects of experience-rated unemployment benefits and inventory costs on production smoothing and labor hoarding

Steven Braun

11: The inventory stock-adjustment model reconsidered

Steven Braun

10: The response of inventories to inflation and interest rate fluctuations, a critique and survey

F. Owen Irvine

9: Merchant wholesaler inventory investment and the cost of capital

F. Owen Irvine

8: Test of the rationality and accuracy of manufacturers' sales expectations

F. Owen Irvine

7: Automobile demand by size, class and gasoline conservation

F. Owen Irvine

6: A study of automobile inventory investment

F. Owen Irvine

5: Aggregate inventory behavior: response to uncertainty and interest rates

Laura S. Rubin

4: A disaggregated analysis of wage behavior in the 1970's

Robert S. Gay

3: A behavioral model of price determination in the manufacturing sector

Alan Sykes

2: A simple forecasting model of quarterly labor market behavior contingent on real outlook and prices

James E. Annable and Joyce Zickler

1: Investigation of the structure of inflation in the 1970's: analysis by stage of processing

Lawrence E. DeMilner