What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to U.S. Tariff Changes

Ana Maria Santacreu, Michael Sposi and Jing Zhang

No WP 2023-09, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Abstract: We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to U.S. tariff changes. We quantify the effects of unilaterally increasing U.S. tariffs by 25 percentage points across sectors. Welfare changes range from –0.8 percent in Oregon to 2.1 percent in Montana. States gain more when their sectoral comparative advantage covaries negatively with that of the aggregate U.S. Consequently, “preferred” changes in tariffs vary systematically across states, indicating the importance of transfers in aligning state preferences over trade policy. Foreign retaliation substantially reduces the gains across states while perpetuating the cross-state variation.

Keywords: Interstate trade; Gains from Trade; Customs Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F11 F62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2023-03-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-law
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes? (2023)
Working Paper: What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes? (2023)
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