Working Paper Series

From Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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WP-2019-3: The limits of forward guidance

Jeffrey Campbell, Filippo Ferroni, Jonas Fisher and Leonardo Melosi

WP-2019-2: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhood Change on Incumbent Families

Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Daniel Hartley and Lee Kwan Ok

WP-2019-1: Affordability, Financial Innovation, and the Start of the Housing Boom

Jane K. Dokko, Benjamin Keys and Lindsay E. Relihan

WP-2018-22: Securities Financing and Asset Markets: New Evidence

Tomas Breach and Thomas King

WP-2018-21: Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: the Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium

Stefania D'Amico and N. Aaron Pancost

WP-2018-20: Organizational Equilibrium with Capital

Marco Bassetto, Zhen Huo and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

WP-2018-19: Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia

Emmanuel Farhi and Francois Gourio

WP-2018-18: Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation

Abdoulaye Ndiaye

WP-2018-17: Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics

Jaap Abbring, Jeffrey Campbell, Jan Tilly and Nan Yang

WP-2018-16: Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?

Scott Baker, Lorenz Kueng, Leslie McGranahan and Brian T. Melzer

WP-2018-15: Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?

Luca Benzoni, Olena Chyruk and David Kelley

WP-2018-14: Discretion Rather than Rules: Equilibrium Uniqueness and Forward Guidance with Inconsistent Optimal Plans

Jeffrey Campbell and Jacob P. Weber

WP-2018-13: Contract Choice in the Interwar US Residential Mortgage Market

Jonathan D. Rose

WP-2018-12: Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area

Philippe Andrade and Filippo Ferroni

WP-2018-11: Easy Bootstrap-Like Estimation of Asymptotic Variances

Bo E. Honore and Luojia Hu

WP-2018-10: Selection Without Exclusion

Bo E. Honore and Luojia Hu

WP-2018-9: Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing

Antonello dAlessandro, Giulio Fella and Leonardo Melosi

WP-2018-8: A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl and James A. Clouse

WP-2018-7: Lottery Loans in the Eighteenth Century

Francois Velde

WP-2018-6: The Role of News about TFP in U.S. Recessions and Booms

Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi

WP-2018-5: The Neapolitan Banks in the Context of Early Modern Public Banks

Francois Velde

WP-2018-4: Internal Immigrant Mobility in the Early 20th Century: Experimental Evidence from Galveston Immigrants

Daniel Aaronson, Jonathan Davis and Karl Schulze

WP-2018-3: Open Mouth Operations

Jeffrey Campbell and Jacob P. Weber

WP-2018-2: Intergenerational Health Mobility in the US

Timothy Halliday, Bhashkar Mazumder and Ashley Wong

WP-2018-1: Why Have Interest Rates Fallen Far Below the Return on Capital

Magali Marx, Benoit Mojon and Francois Velde

WP-2017-26: A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices

Dominic Anene and Stefania D'Amico

WP-2017-25: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates

Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui

WP-2017-24: An Analysis of Revenues at the Comédie française, 1680-1793

Francois Velde

WP-2017-23: The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti

WP-2017-22: The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns

Andres Donangelo, Francois Gourio, Matthias Kehrig and Miguel Palacios

WP-2017-21: The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind

Francois Gourio, Anil Kashyap and Jae Sim

WP-2017-20: Selecting Primal Innovations in DSGE models

Filippo Ferroni, Stefano Grassi and Miguel Leon-Ledesma

WP-2017-19: The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination

Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi

WP-2017-18: The Age-Time-Cohort Problem and the Identification of Structural Parameters in Life-Cycle Models

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

WP-2017-17: Estimating the Tax and Credit-Event Risk Components of Credit Spreads

Luca Benzoni and Robert S. Goldstein

WP-2017-16: On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles

Franklin Allen, Gadi Barlevy and Douglas Gale

WP-2017-15: Financialization in Commodity Markets

V. V. Chari and Lawrence Christiano

WP-2017-14: The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries

Rajeev Dehejia, Rajeev Dehejia, Andrew Jordan, Cristian Pop-Eleches, Cyrus Samii and Karl Schulze

WP-2017-13: Inflation at the Household Level

Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

WP-2017-12: The Effects of the 1930s HOLC “Redlining” Maps

Daniel Aaronson, Daniel Hartley and Bhashkar Mazumder

WP-2017-11: Check Up Before You Check Out: Retail Clinics and Emergency Room Use

Diane Alexander, Janet Currie and Molly Schnell

WP-2017-10: Closing the Gap: The Impact of the Medicaid Primary Care Rate Increase on Access and Health

Diane Alexander and Molly Schnell

WP-2017-9: How do Doctors Respond to Incentives? Unintended Consequences of Paying Doctors to Reduce Costs

Diane Alexander

WP-2017-8: Just What the Nurse Practitioner Ordered: Independent Prescriptive Authority and Population Mental Health

Diane Alexander and Molly Schnell

WP-2017-7: Does Physician Pay Affect Procedure Choice and Patient Health? Evidence from Medicaid C-section Use

Diane Alexander

WP-2017-6: Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises

Marco Bassetto and Carlo Galli

WP-2017-5: The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility After 1980

Jonathan Davis and Bhashkar Mazumder

WP-2017-4: Worker Betas: Five Facts About Systematic Earnings Risk

Fatih Guvenen, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl and Motohiro Yogo

WP-2017-3: Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low-Wage Job

Daniel Aaronson and Brian J. Phelan

WP-2017-2: Neighborhood Choices, Neighborhood Effects and Housing Vouchers

Morris Davis, Jess Gregory, Daniel Hartley and Kegon Tan