Working Paper Series

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WP 2020-15: Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments

Ezra Karger and Aastha Rajan

WP 2020-13: Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength

Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi

WP 2020-12: Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior

Diane Alexander and Ezra Karger

WP 2020-11: What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

Francois Velde

WP 2020-10: Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims

Daniel Aaronson, Scott Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Daniel Sacks and Boyoung Seo

WP 2020-09: Bad Jobs and Low Inflation

Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi

WP 2020-08: Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. Economy

Charles Fries and Francois Gourio

WP 2020-07: Credit Score Doctors

Luojia Hu, Xing Huang and Andrei Simonov

WP 2020-06: The Signaling, Screening, and Human Capital Effects of National Board Certification: Evidence from Chicago and Kentucky High Schools

Lisa Barrow, Thomas Geraghty, Christine Mokher and Lauren Sartain

WP 2020-05: Computing Equilibria of Stochastic Heterogeneous Agent Models Using Decision Rule Histories

Marcelo Veracierto

WP 2020-04: Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mirrlees Economies: The Case of i.i.d. Shocks

Marcelo Veracierto

WP 2020-03: Who Has the Time? Community College Students’ Time-Use Response to Financial Incentives

Lisa Barrow, Amanda McFarland and Cecilia Elena Rouse

WP 2020-02: Monetary Policy Implementation With an Ample Supply of Reserves

Gara Afonso, Kyungmin Kim, Antoine Martin, Ed Nosal, Simon Potter and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

WP 2020-01: Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation

Francois Gourio and Phuong Ngo

WP 2019-12: Central Clearing and Systemic Liquidity Risk

G. Thomas Kingsley, Travis Nesmith, Anna Paulson and Todd Prono

WP 2019-11: Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime

Scott Brave, Charles Gascon, William Kluender and Thomas Walstrum

WP-2019-10: Weathering an Unexpected Financial Shock: The Role of Cash Grants on Household Finance and Business Survival

Justin Gallagher, Daniel Hartley and Shawn Rohlin

WP-2019-9: Social Interventions, Health and Wellbeing: The Long-Term and Intergenerational Effects of a School Construction Program

Bhashkar Mazumder, Maria Rosales-Rueda and Margaret Triyana

WP-2019-8: Asymmetric Information, Dynamic Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

Luca Benzoni, Lorenzo Garlappi and Robert S. Goldstein

WP-2019-7: Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target

Francesco Bianchi, Leonardo Melosi and Matthias Rottner

WP-2019-6: The Concentration of Cleared Derivatives: Can Access to Direct CCP Clearing for End-Users Address the Challenge?

Nahiomy Alvarez and John McPartland

WP-2019-5: Forward Guidance: Communication, Commitment, or Both?

Marco Bassetto

WP-2019-4: The Impact of Car Pollution on Infant and Child Health: Evidence from Emissions Cheating

Diane Alexander and Hannes Schwandt

WP-2019-3: The limits of forward guidance

Jeffrey Campbell, Filippo Ferroni, Jonas Fisher and Leonardo Melosi

WP-2019-2: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhood Change on Incumbent Families

Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Daniel Hartley and Kwan Ok Lee

WP-2019-1: Affordability, Financial Innovation, and the Start of the Housing Boom

Jane K. Dokko, Benjamin Keys and Lindsay E. Relihan

WP-2018-22: Securities Financing and Asset Markets: New Evidence

Tomas Breach and Thomas King

WP-2018-21: Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: the Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium

Stefania D'Amico and N. Aaron Pancost

WP-2018-20: Organizational Equilibrium with Capital

Marco Bassetto, Zhen Huo and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

WP-2018-19: Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia

Emmanuel Farhi and Francois Gourio

WP-2018-18: Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation

Abdoulaye Ndiaye

WP-2018-17: Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics

Jaap Abbring, Jeffrey Campbell, Jan Tilly and Nan Yang

WP-2018-16: Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?

Scott Baker, Lorenz Kueng, Leslie McGranahan and Brian T. Melzer

WP-2018-15: Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?

Luca Benzoni, Olena Chyruk and David Kelley

WP-2018-14: Discretion Rather than Rules: Equilibrium Uniqueness and Forward Guidance with Inconsistent Optimal Plans

Jeffrey Campbell and Jacob P. Weber

WP-2018-13: Contract Choice in the Interwar US Residential Mortgage Market

Jonathan D. Rose

WP-2018-12: Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area

Philippe Andrade and Filippo Ferroni

WP-2018-11: Easy Bootstrap-Like Estimation of Asymptotic Variances

Bo E. Honore and Luojia Hu

WP-2018-10: Selection Without Exclusion

Bo E. Honore and Luojia Hu

WP-2018-9: Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing

Antonello dAlessandro, Giulio Fella and Leonardo Melosi

WP-2018-8: A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves

James A. Clouse and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

WP-2018-7: Lottery Loans in the Eighteenth Century

Francois Velde

WP-2018-6: The Role of News about TFP in U.S. Recessions and Booms

Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi

WP-2018-5: The Neapolitan Banks in the Context of Early Modern Public Banks

Francois Velde

WP-2018-4: Internal Immigrant Mobility in the Early 20th Century: Experimental Evidence from Galveston Immigrants

Daniel Aaronson, Jonathan Davis and Karl Schulze

WP-2018-3: Open Mouth Operations

Jeffrey Campbell and Jacob P. Weber

WP-2018-2: Intergenerational Health Mobility in the US

Timothy Halliday, Bhashkar Mazumder and Ashley Wong

WP-2018-1: Why Have Interest Rates Fallen Far Below the Return on Capital

Magali Marx, Benoit Mojon and Francois Velde

WP-2017-26: A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices

Dominic Anene and Stefania D'Amico

WP-2017-25: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates

Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui