Working Paper Series

From Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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2019: Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mirrlees Economies: The Case of i.i.d. Shocks

Marcelo Veracierto

2019: Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime

Scott Brave, Charles Gascon, William Kluender and Thomas Walstrum

2019: Central Clearing and Systemic Liquidity Risk

G. Thomas Kingsley, Travis Nesmith, Anna Paulson and Todd Prono

2019: Weathering an Unexpected Financial Shock: The Role of Cash Grants on Household Finance and Business Survival

Justin Gallagher, Daniel Hartley and Shawn Rohlin

2019: Social Interventions, Health and Wellbeing: The Long-Term and Intergenerational Effects of a School Construction Program

Bhashkar Mazumder, Maria Rosales-Rueda and Margaret Triyana

2019: Asymmetric Information, Dynamic Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

Luca Benzoni, Lorenzo Garlappi and Robert S. Goldstein

2019: Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target

Francesco Bianchi, Leonardo Melosi and Matthias Rottner

2019: The Concentration of Cleared Derivatives: Can Access to Direct CCP Clearing for End-Users Address the Challenge?

Nahiomy Alvarez and John McPartland

2019: Forward Guidance: Communication, Commitment, or Both?

Marco Bassetto

2019: The Impact of Car Pollution on Infant and Child Health: Evidence from Emissions Cheating

Diane Alexander and Hannes Schwandt

2019: The limits of forward guidance

Jeffrey Campbell, Filippo Ferroni, Jonas Fisher and Leonardo Melosi

2019: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhood Change on Incumbent Families

Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Daniel Hartley and Kwan Ok Lee

2019: Affordability, Financial Innovation, and the Start of the Housing Boom

Jane K. Dokko, Benjamin Keys and Lindsay E. Relihan

2018: Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: the Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium

Stefania D'Amico and N. Aaron Pancost

2018: Organizational Equilibrium with Capital

Marco Bassetto, Zhen Huo and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

2018: Securities Financing and Asset Markets: New Evidence

Tomas Breach and Thomas King

2018: Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia

Emmanuel Farhi and Francois Gourio

2018: Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?

Scott Baker, Lorenz Kueng, Leslie McGranahan and Brian Melzer

2018: Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?

Luca Benzoni, Olena Chyruk and David Kelley

2018: Discretion Rather than Rules: Equilibrium Uniqueness and Forward Guidance with Inconsistent Optimal Plans

Jeffrey Campbell and Jacob Weber

2018: Contract Choice in the Interwar US Residential Mortgage Market

Jonathan Rose

2018: Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area

Philippe Andrade and Filippo Ferroni

2018: Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics

Jaap Abbring, Jeffrey Campbell, Jan Tilly and Nan Yang

2018: Selection Without Exclusion

Bo E. Honore and Luojia Hu

2018: Easy Bootstrap-Like Estimation of Asymptotic Variances

Bo E. Honore and Luojia Hu

2018: Lottery Loans in the Eighteenth Century

Francois Velde

2018: Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing

Antonello dAlessandro, Giulio Fella and Leonardo Melosi

2018: A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves

James A. Clouse and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

2018: The Role of News about TFP in U.S. Recessions and Booms

Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi

2018: The Neapolitan Banks in the Context of Early Modern Public Banks

Francois Velde

2018: Internal Immigrant Mobility in the Early 20th Century: Experimental Evidence from Galveston Immigrants

Daniel Aaronson, Jonathan Davis and Karl Schulze

2018: Open Mouth Operations

Jeffrey Campbell and Jacob Weber

2018: Intergenerational Health Mobility in the US

Timothy Halliday, Bhashkar Mazumder and Ashley Wong

2018: Why Have Interest Rates Fallen Far Below the Return on Capital

Magali Marx, Benoit Mojon and Francois Velde

2017: A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices

Dominic Anene and Stefania D'Amico

2017: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates

Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui

2017: An Analysis of Revenues at the Comédie française, 1680-1793

Francois Velde

2017: Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation

Abdoulaye Ndiaye

2017: The Age-Time-Cohort Problem and the Identification of Structural Parameters in Life-Cycle Models

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

2017: On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles

Franklin Allen, Gadi Barlevy and Douglas Gale

2017: Financialization in Commodity Markets

Varadarajan Chari and Lawrence Christiano

2017: The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries

Rajeev Dehejia, Rajeev Dehejia, Andrew Jordan, Cristian Pop-Eleches, Cyrus Samii and Karl Schulze

2017: Inflation at the Household Level

Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

2017: The Effects of the 1930s HOLC \"Redlining\" Maps

Daniel Aaronson, Daniel Hartley and Bhashkar Mazumder

2017: Check Up Before You Check Out: Retail Clinics and Emergency Room Use

Diane Alexander, Janet Currie and Molly Schnell

2017: The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns

Andres Donangelo, Francois Gourio, Matthias Kehrig and Miguel Palacios

2017: The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti

2017: The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind

Francois Gourio, Anil Kashyap and Jae Sim

2017: Selecting Primal Innovations in DSGE models

Filippo Ferroni, Stefano Grassi and Miguel Leon-Ledesma

2017: The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination

Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi

2017: Closing the Gap: The Impact of the Medicaid Primary Care Rate Increase on Access and Health

Diane Alexander and Molly Schnell

2017: Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises

Marco Bassetto and Carlo Galli

2017: How do Doctors Respond to Incentives? Unintended Consequences of Paying Doctors to Reduce Costs

Diane Alexander

2017: Worker Betas: Five Facts About Systematic Earnings Risk

Fatih Guvenen, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl and Motohiro Yogo

2017: The Federal Reserve’s Evolving Monetary Policy Implementation Framework: 1914-1923

Benjamin Chabot

2017: Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low-Wage Job

Daniel Aaronson and Brian J. Phelan

2017: Neighborhood Choices, Neighborhood Effects and Housing Vouchers

Morris Davis, Jesse Gregory, Daniel Hartley and Kegon Tan