China's export growth and U.S. trade policy

Chad Bown and Meredith Crowley

No WP-04-28, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Abstract: This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across commodity, with the strongest evidence of trade deflection appearing in the steel, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods industries.

Keywords: Exports; Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-sea and nep-tra
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