Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations

Sharon Kozicki

No RWP 01-12, Research Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Abstract: This note extends the analysis in Stark and Croushore (2001) with an emphasis on the importance of data vintage for survey forecasts and modeling expectations. For both of these types of empirical exercises, results suggest that the choice of latest available or real-time data is critical for variables subject to large level revisions, but almost irrelevant for variables subject to only small revisions. Other forecasting practices were examined, with some surprising results.

Keywords: Forecasting; Real-time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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