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Research Working Paper

From Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
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RWP 18-14: Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data Downloads
Craig Hakkio and Jun Nie
RWP 18-13: Reconciling VAR-based Forecasts with Survey Forecasts Downloads
Taeyoung Doh and Andrew Smith
RWP 18-12: Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration Under Model Uncertainty Downloads
Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric Young
RWP 18-11: The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests Downloads
John W. Keating and Andrew Smith
RWP 18-10: The Initial Effects of EMV Migration on Chargebacks in the United States Downloads
Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Sabrina Minhas
RWP 18-9: The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market: Matching Data Downloads
Gregory J. Cohen, Melanie Friedrichs, Kamran Gupta, William Hayes, Seung Jung Lee, W. Blake Marsh, Nathan Mislang, Maya Shaton and Martin Sicilian
RWP 18-8: The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation Downloads
Didem Tuzemen and Willem Van Zandweghe
RWP 18-7: Effects of State Taxation on Investment: Evidence from the Oil Industry Downloads
Jason Brown, Peter Maniloff and Dale Manning
RWP 18-6: Reaching the Hard to Reach with Intermediaries: The Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey Downloads
Kelly Edmiston
RWP 18-5: Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Reply Downloads
Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick
RWP 18-4: The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding Downloads
Jason Brown, Dayton Lambert and Timothy Wojan
RWP 18-3: Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States Downloads
Didem Tuzemen
RWP 18-2: Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs Downloads
Huixin Bi, Eric Leeper and Campbell Leith
RWP 18-1: Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications Downloads
Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith
RWP 17-16: How Centralized is U.S. Metropolitan Employment? Downloads
Jason Brown, Maeve Maloney, Jordan Rappaport and Aaron Smalter Hall
RWP 17-15: The Persistence of Financial Distress Downloads
Kartik B. Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan Sanchez
RWP 17-14: Faster Payments: Market Structure and Policy Considerations Downloads
Fumiko Hayashi, Aaron Rosenbaum, Kylie Stewart, Mark D. Manuszak, Garth Baughman and Joanna Stavins
RWP 17-13: Ignorance, Uncertainty, and Strategic Consumption-Portfolio Decisions Downloads
Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Haijun Wang
RWP 17-12: The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from Changes in Global Tax Policies Downloads
Brian K. Kovak, Lindsay Oldenski and Nicholas Sly
RWP 17-11: Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks Downloads
Thomas Cook and Aaron Smalter Hall
RWP 17-10: The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida Downloads
Nida Cakir Melek, Michael Plante and Mine Yucel
RWP 17-9: Financial Vulnerability and Personal Finance Outcomes of Natural Disasters Downloads
Kelly Edmiston
RWP 17-8: Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data Downloads
Taeyoung Doh
RWP 17-7: Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium Downloads
Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Andrew Smith
RWP 17-6: Competition and Bank Fragility Downloads
Blake Marsh and Rajdeep Sengupta
RWP 17-5: Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts Downloads
Jason Brown
RWP 17-4: Communicating Monetary Policy Rules Downloads
Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster
RWP 17-3: Assessing Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Across Race, Age, and Educational Attainment Downloads
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Department
RWP 17-2: Student Loan Relief Programs: Implications for Borrowers and the Federal Government Downloads
Wenhua Di and Kelly Edmiston
RWP 17-1: Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited Downloads
Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
RWP 16-13: Sectoral Loan Concentration and Bank Performance (2001-2014) Downloads
Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta
RWP 16-12: Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties Downloads
Jason Brown, Timothy Fitzgerald and Jeremy Weber
RWP 16-11: The Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity and Interest Rates Downloads
Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu
RWP 16-10: The Multinational Wage Premium and Wage Dynamics Downloads
Nicholas Sly, Gianluca Orefice and Farid Toubal
RWP 16-9: Price Dispersion and Inflation Persistence Downloads
Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
RWP 16-8: Do bank bailouts reduce or increase systemic risk? the effects of TARP on financial system stability Downloads
Raluca Roman, Allen N. Berger and John Sedunov
RWP 16-7: Optimal monetary policy regime switches Downloads
Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi
RWP 16-6: Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification Downloads
Troy Davig and Aaron Smalter Hall
RWP 16-5: Raising capital when the going gets tough: U.S. bank equity issuance from 2001 to 2014 Downloads
Rajdeep Sengupta, Lamont K. Black and Ioannis Floros
RWP 16-4: Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions Downloads
Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang
RWP 16-3: Productivity, congested commuting, and metro size Downloads
Jordan Rappaport
RWP 16-2: The dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks Downloads
Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith
RWP 16-1: Chargebacks: another payment card acceptance cost for merchants Downloads
Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Richard Sullivan
RWP 15-17: Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation Downloads
Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
RWP 15-16: Elastic attention, risk sharing, and international comovements Downloads
Jun Nie, Yulei Luo and Wei Li
RWP 15-15: Driver of choice? the cost of financial products for unbanked consumers Downloads
Fumiko Hayashi, Josh Hanson and Jesse Leigh Maniff
RWP 15-14: Robust permanent income in general equilibrium Downloads
Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric Young
RWP 15-13: Did saving Wall Street really save Main Street: the real effects of TARP on local economic conditions Downloads
Allen N. Berger and Raluca Roman
RWP 15-12: Cash flow and risk premium dynamics in an equilibrium asset-pricing model with recursive preferences Downloads
Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu
RWP 15-11: Did bank borrowers benefit from the TARP program: the effects of TARP on loan contract terms Downloads
Allen N. Berger, Tanakorn Makaew and Raluca Roman
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