Research Working Paper

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RWP 21-02: The Size of U.S. Metropolitan Areas

McKenzie Humann and Jordan Rappaport

RWP 21-01: Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency

Amaze Lusompa

RWP 20-23: The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet

Andrew Smith and Victor (Vic) Valcarcel

RWP 20-22: Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

Marianna Kudlyak, Murat Tasci and Didem Tuzemen

RWP 20-21: Market Integration and Bank Risk-Taking

Kaniska Dam and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 20-20: Mining for Oil Forecasts

Nida Cakir Melek, Charles Calomiris and Harry Mamaysky

RWP 20-19: Flight to Liquidity or Safety? Recent Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market

Huixin Bi and W. Blake Marsh

RWP 20-18: Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in the United States and Canada

Marie-Helene Felt, Fumiko Hayashi, Joanna Stavins and Angelika Welte

RWP 20-17: Why Does Structural Change Accelerate in Recessions? The Credit Reallocation Channel

Cooper Howes

RWP 20-16: Money, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model with the Spirit of Capitalism

Qinchun He, Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Heng-Fu Zou

RWP 20-15: Death of Coal and Breath of Life: The Effect of Power Plant Closure on Local Air Quality

Jason Brown and Colton Tousey

RWP 20-14: Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements

Taeyoung Doh, Dongho Song and Shu-Kuei X. Yang

RWP 20-13: Household Financial Distress and the Burden of ‘Aggregate’ Shocks

Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan Sanchez

RWP 20-12: Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization in the United States

Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang

RWP 20-11: Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 20-10: Payments Crises and Consequences

Qian Chen, Christoffer Koch, Gary Richardson and Padma Sharma

RWP 20-09: Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data

Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang

RWP 20-08: Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad

RWP 20-07: Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic

Jun Nie and Zoe Xie

RWP 20-06: Public Pension Reforms and Fiscal Foresight: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications

Huixin Bi and Sarah Zubairy

RWP 20-05: Housing Market Value Impairment from Future Sea-level Rise Inundation

Christopher J. Amante, Jacob Dice, David Rodziewicz and Eugene Wahl

RWP 20-04: The Unintended Consequences of Employer Credit Check Bans for Labor Markets

Kristle Cortes, Andrew Glover and Murat Tasci

RWP 20-03: Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic

Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

RWP 20-02: Examining the Relationships between Land Values and Credit Availability

Cortney Cowley and Ani Katchova

RWP 20-01: Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 19-12: Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risks in a Data-Rich Environment

Thomas Cook and Taeyoung Doh

RWP 19-11: Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness

Qingyuan Du, Jun Nie and Shang-Jin Wei

RWP 19-10: Risk-Shifting, Regulation, and Government Assistance

Padma Sharma

RWP 19-9: Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve

Karlye Dilts Stedman

RWP 19-8: Urban Growth Shadows

David Cuberes, Klaus Desmet and Jordan Rappaport

RWP 19-7: Negative Nominal Interest Rates Can Worsen Liquidity Traps

Andy Glover

RWP 19-6: Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel

Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan Sanchez

RWP 19-5: Privacy Regulation and Quality Investment

Yassine Lefouili and Ying Lei Toh

RWP 19-4: Sovereign Risk and Fiscal Information: A Look at the U.S. State Default of the 1840s

Huixin Bi and Nora Traum

RWP 19-3: Disappearing Routine Occupations and Declining Prime-Age Labor Force Participation

Didem Tuzemen

RWP 19-2: Rising Market Concentration and the Decline of Food Price Shock Pass-Through to Core Inflation

Jason Brown and Tousey Colton

RWP 19-1: Speaking for Herself: Changing Gender Roles in Survey Response

Sabrina Minhas and Amy Oksol

RWP 18-14: Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data

Craig Hakkio and Jun Nie

RWP 18-13: Reconciling VAR-based Forecasts with Survey Forecasts

Taeyoung Doh and Andrew Smith

RWP 18-12: Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration Under Model Uncertainty

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric Young

RWP 18-11: The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests

John Keating and Andrew Smith

RWP 18-10: The Initial Effects of EMV Migration on Chargebacks in the United States

Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Sabrina Minhas

RWP 18-9: The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market: Matching Data

Gregory J. Cohen, Melanie Friedrichs, Kamran Gupta, William Hayes, Seung Jung Lee, W. Blake Marsh, Nathan Mislang, Maya Shaton and Martin Sicilian

RWP 18-8: The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation

Didem Tuzemen and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 18-7: Effects of State Taxation on Investment: Evidence from the Oil Industry

Jason Brown, Peter Maniloff and Dale Manning

RWP 18-6: Reaching the Hard to Reach with Intermediaries: The Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey

Kelly Edmiston

RWP 18-5: Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Reply

Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick

RWP 18-4: The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding

Jason Brown, Dayton Lambert and Timothy Wojan

RWP 18-3: Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States

Didem Tuzemen

RWP 18-2: Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Huixin Bi, Eric Leeper and Campbell Leith