Research Working Paper

From Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
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RWP 18-14: Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data

Craig Hakkio and Jun Nie

RWP 18-13: Reconciling VAR-based Forecasts with Survey Forecasts

Taeyoung Doh and Andrew Smith

RWP 18-12: Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration Under Model Uncertainty

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric Young

RWP 18-11: The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests

John W. Keating and Andrew Smith

RWP 18-10: The Initial Effects of EMV Migration on Chargebacks in the United States

Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Sabrina Minhas

RWP 18-9: The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market: Matching Data

Gregory J. Cohen, Melanie Friedrichs, Kamran Gupta, William Hayes, Seung Jung Lee, W. Blake Marsh, Nathan Mislang, Maya Shaton and Martin Sicilian

RWP 18-8: The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation

Didem Tuzemen and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 18-7: Effects of State Taxation on Investment: Evidence from the Oil Industry

Jason Brown, Peter Maniloff and Dale Manning

RWP 18-6: Reaching the Hard to Reach with Intermediaries: The Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey

Kelly Edmiston

RWP 18-5: Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Reply

Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick

RWP 18-4: The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding

Jason Brown, Dayton Lambert and Timothy Wojan

RWP 18-3: Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States

Didem Tuzemen

RWP 18-2: Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Huixin Bi, Eric Leeper and Campbell Leith

RWP 18-1: Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 17-16: How Centralized is U.S. Metropolitan Employment?

Jason Brown, Maeve Maloney, Jordan Rappaport and Aaron Smalter Hall

RWP 17-15: The Persistence of Financial Distress

Kartik B. Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan Sanchez

RWP 17-14: Faster Payments: Market Structure and Policy Considerations

Fumiko Hayashi, Aaron Rosenbaum, Kylie Stewart, Mark D. Manuszak, Garth Baughman and Joanna Stavins

RWP 17-13: Ignorance, Uncertainty, and Strategic Consumption-Portfolio Decisions

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Haijun Wang

RWP 17-12: The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from Changes in Global Tax Policies

Brian K. Kovak, Lindsay Oldenski and Nicholas Sly

RWP 17-11: Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks

Thomas Cook and Aaron Smalter Hall

RWP 17-10: The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida

Nida Cakir Melek, Michael Plante and Mine Yucel

RWP 17-9: Financial Vulnerability and Personal Finance Outcomes of Natural Disasters

Kelly Edmiston

RWP 17-8: Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data

Taeyoung Doh

RWP 17-7: Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium

Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Andrew Smith

RWP 17-6: Competition and Bank Fragility

Blake Marsh and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 17-5: Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts

Jason Brown

RWP 17-4: Communicating Monetary Policy Rules

Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

RWP 17-3: Assessing Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Across Race, Age, and Educational Attainment

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Department

RWP 17-2: Student Loan Relief Programs: Implications for Borrowers and the Federal Government

Wenhua Di and Kelly Edmiston

RWP 17-1: Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 16-13: Sectoral Loan Concentration and Bank Performance (2001-2014)

Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 16-12: Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties

Jason Brown, Timothy Fitzgerald and Jeremy Weber

RWP 16-11: The Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity and Interest Rates

Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu

RWP 16-10: The Multinational Wage Premium and Wage Dynamics

Nicholas Sly, Gianluca Orefice and Farid Toubal

RWP 16-9: Price Dispersion and Inflation Persistence

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 16-8: Do bank bailouts reduce or increase systemic risk? the effects of TARP on financial system stability

Raluca Roman, Allen N. Berger and John Sedunov

RWP 16-7: Optimal monetary policy regime switches

Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi

RWP 16-6: Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification

Troy Davig and Aaron Smalter Hall

RWP 16-5: Raising capital when the going gets tough: U.S. bank equity issuance from 2001 to 2014

Rajdeep Sengupta, Lamont K. Black and Ioannis Floros

RWP 16-4: Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions

Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang

RWP 16-3: Productivity, congested commuting, and metro size

Jordan Rappaport

RWP 16-2: The dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 16-1: Chargebacks: another payment card acceptance cost for merchants

Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Richard Sullivan

RWP 15-17: Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation

Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 15-16: Elastic attention, risk sharing, and international comovements

Jun Nie, Yulei Luo and Wei Li

RWP 15-15: Driver of choice? the cost of financial products for unbanked consumers

Fumiko Hayashi, Josh Hanson and Jesse Leigh Maniff

RWP 15-14: Robust permanent income in general equilibrium

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric Young

RWP 15-13: Did saving Wall Street really save Main Street: the real effects of TARP on local economic conditions

Allen N. Berger and Raluca Roman

RWP 15-12: Cash flow and risk premium dynamics in an equilibrium asset-pricing model with recursive preferences

Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu

RWP 15-11: Did bank borrowers benefit from the TARP program: the effects of TARP on loan contract terms

Allen N. Berger, Tanakorn Makaew and Raluca Roman