Research Working Paper

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RWP 17-13: Ignorance, Uncertainty, and Strategic Consumption-Portfolio Decisions

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Haijun Wang

RWP 17-12: The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from Changes in Global Tax Policies

Brian Kovak, Lindsay Oldenski and Nicholas Sly

RWP 17-11: Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks

Thomas Cook and Aaron Smalter Hall

RWP 17-10: The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida

Nida Cakir Melek, Michael Plante and Mine Yucel

RWP 17-9: Financial Vulnerability and Personal Finance Outcomes of Natural Disasters

Kelly Edmiston

RWP 17-8: Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data

Taeyoung Doh

RWP 17-7: Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium

Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Andrew Smith

RWP 17-6: Competition and Bank Fragility

W. Blake Marsh and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 17-05: Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts

Jason Brown

RWP 17-4: Communicating Monetary Policy Rules

Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

RWP 17-3: Assessing Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Across Race, Age, and Educational Attainment

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Department

RWP 17-2: Student Loan Relief Programs: Implications for Borrowers and the Federal Government

Wenhua Di and Kelly Edmiston

RWP 17-1: Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 16-13: Sectoral Loan Concentration and Bank Performance (2001-2014)

Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 16-12: Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties

Jason Brown, Timothy Fitzgerald and Jeremy Weber

RWP 16-11: The Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity and Interest Rates

Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu

RWP 16-10: The Multinational Wage Premium and Wage Dynamics

Gianluca Orefice, Nicholas Sly and Farid Toubal

RWP 16-9: Price Dispersion and Inflation Persistence

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 16-8: Do bank bailouts reduce or increase systemic risk? the effects of TARP on financial system stability

Allen Berger, Raluca Roman and John Sedunov

RWP 16-7: Optimal monetary policy regime switches

Jason Choi and Andrew Foerster

RWP 16-6: Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification

Troy Davig and Aaron Smalter Hall

RWP 16-5: Raising capital when the going gets tough: U.S. bank equity issuance from 2001 to 2014

Lamont K. Black, Ioannis Floros and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 16-4: Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions

Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang

RWP 16-3: Productivity, congested commuting, and metro size

Jordan Rappaport

RWP 16-2: The dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 16-1: Chargebacks: another payment card acceptance cost for merchants

Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Richard Sullivan

RWP 15-17: Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation

Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 15-16: Elastic attention, risk sharing, and international comovements

Wei Li, Yulei Luo and Jun Nie

RWP 15-15: Driver of choice? the cost of financial products for unbanked consumers

Josh Hanson, Fumiko Hayashi and Jesse Maniff

RWP 15-14: Robust permanent income in general equilibrium

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric Young

RWP 15-13: Did saving Wall Street really save Main Street: the real effects of TARP on local economic conditions

Allen Berger and Raluca Roman

RWP 15-12: Cash flow and risk premium dynamics in an equilibrium asset-pricing model with recursive preferences

Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu

RWP 15-11: Did bank borrowers benefit from the TARP program: the effects of TARP on loan contract terms

Allen Berger, Tanakorn Makaew and Raluca Roman

RWP 15-10: Health-care reform or labor market reform? a quantitative analysis of the Affordable Care Act

Makoto Nakajima and Didem Tuzemen

RWP 15-9: Shareholder activism in banking

Raluca Roman

RWP 15-8: Internationalization and bank risk

Allen Berger, Sadok El Ghoul, Omrane Guedhami and Raluca Roman

RWP 15-7: Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles

Nicholas Sly and Caroline Weber

RWP 15-6: When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?

Andrew Smith

RWP 15-5: Is optimal monetary policy always optimal?

Troy Davig and Refet Gürkaynak

RWP 15-4: Capturing rents from natural resource abundance: private royalties from U.S. onshore oil and gas production

Jason Brown, Timothy Fitzgerald and Jeremy Weber

RWP 15-3: Faster payments in the United States: how can private sector systems achieve public policy goals?

Fumiko Hayashi

RWP 15-2: Credit scoring and loan default

Geetesh Bhardwaj and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 15-1: Endogenous volatility at the zero lower bound: implications for stabilization policy

Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick

RWP 14-18: To sell or to borrow: a theory of bank liquidity management

Michal Kowalik

RWP 14-17: Search with wage posting under sticky prices

Andrew Foerster and Jose Mustre-del-Rio

RWP 14-16: Self-employment and health care reform: evidence from Massachusetts

Thealexa Becker and Didem Tuzemen

RWP 14-15: Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand

Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick

RWP 14-14: What we don’t know doesn’t hurt us: rational inattention and the permanent income hypothesis in general equilibrium

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie, Gaowang Wang and Eric Young

RWP 14-13: Yield curve and monetary policy expectations in small open economies

Kwan Soo Bong, Taeyoung Doh and Woong Yong Park

RWP 14-12: House prices, heterogeneous banks and unconventional monetary policy options

Andrew Smith