Research Working Paper

From Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
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RWP 20-09: Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data

Yifei Lyu, Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang

RWP 20-08: Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad

RWP 20-07: Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic

Jun Nie and Zoe Xie

RWP 20-06: Public Pension Reforms and Fiscal Foresight: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications

Huixin Bi and Sarah Zubairy

RWP 20-05: Housing Market Value Impairment from Future Sea-level Rise Inundation

Christopher J. Amante, Jacob Dice, David Rodziewicz and Eugene Wahl

RWP 20-04: The Unintended Consequences of Employer Credit Check Bans for Labor Markets

Kristle Cortes, Andrew Glover and Murat Tasci

RWP 20-03: Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic

Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

RWP 20-02: Examining the Relationships between Land Values and Credit Availability

Cortney Cowley, Ani Katchova and Ana Claudia Sant'Anna

RWP 20-01: Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 19-12: Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risks in a Data-Rich Environment

Thomas Cook and Taeyoung Doh

RWP 19-11: Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness

Qingyuan Du, Jun Nie and Shang-Jin Wei

RWP 19-10: Risk-Shifting, Regulation, and Government Assistance

Padma Sharma

RWP 19-9: Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve

Karlye Dilts Stedman

RWP 19-8: Urban Growth Shadows

David Cuberes, Klaus Desmet and Jordan Rappaport

RWP 19-7: Negative Nominal Interest Rates Can Worsen Liquidity Traps

Andy Glover

RWP 19-6: Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel

Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan Sanchez

RWP 19-5: Privacy Regulation and Quality Investment

Yassine Lefouili and Ying Lei Toh

RWP 19-4: Sovereign Risk and Fiscal Information: A Look at the U.S. State Default of the 1840s

Huixin Bi and Nora Traum

RWP 19-3: Disappearing Routine Occupations and Declining Prime-Age Labor Force Participation

Didem Tuzemen

RWP 19-02: Rising Market Concentration and the Decline of Food Price Shock Pass-Through to Core Inflation

Jason Brown and Colton Tousey

RWP 19-1: Speaking for Herself: Changing Gender Roles in Survey Response

Sabrina Minhas and Amy Oksol

RWP 18-14: Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data

Craig Hakkio and Jun Nie

RWP 18-13: Reconciling VAR-based Forecasts with Survey Forecasts

Taeyoung Doh and Andrew Smith

RWP 18-12: Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration Under Model Uncertainty

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric Young

RWP 18-11: The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests

John Keating and Andrew Smith

RWP 18-10: The Initial Effects of EMV Migration on Chargebacks in the United States

Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Sabrina Minhas

RWP 18-9: The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market: Matching Data

Gregory J. Cohen, Melanie Friedrichs, Kamran Gupta, William Hayes, Seung Jung Lee, W. Blake Marsh, Nathan Mislang, Maya Shaton and Martin Sicilian

RWP 18-8: The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation

Didem Tuzemen and Willem Van Zandweghe

RWP 18-7: Effects of State Taxation on Investment: Evidence from the Oil Industry

Jason Brown, Peter Maniloff and Dale Manning

RWP 18-6: Reaching the Hard to Reach with Intermediaries: The Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey

Kelly Edmiston

RWP 18-5: Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Reply

Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick

RWP 18-4: The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding

Jason Brown, Dayton Lambert and Timothy Wojan

RWP 18-3: Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States

Didem Tuzemen

RWP 18-2: Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Huixin Bi, Eric Leeper and Campbell Leith

RWP 18-1: Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 17-16: How Centralized is U.S. Metropolitan Employment?

Jason Brown, Maeve Maloney, Jordan Rappaport and Aaron Smalter Hall

RWP 17-15: The Persistence of Financial Distress

Kartik Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan Sanchez

RWP 17-14: Faster Payments: Market Structure and Policy Considerations

Garth Baughman, Fumiko Hayashi, Mark D. Manuszak, Aaron Rosenbaum, Joanna Stavins and Kylie Stewart

RWP 17-13: Ignorance, Uncertainty, and Strategic Consumption-Portfolio Decisions

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Haijun Wang

RWP 17-12: The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from Changes in Global Tax Policies

Brian Kovak, Lindsay Oldenski and Nicholas Sly

RWP 17-11: Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks

Thomas Cook and Aaron Smalter Hall

RWP 17-10: The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida

Nida Cakir Melek, Michael Plante and Mine Yucel

RWP 17-9: Financial Vulnerability and Personal Finance Outcomes of Natural Disasters

Kelly Edmiston

RWP 17-8: Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data

Taeyoung Doh

RWP 17-7: Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium

Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Andrew Smith

RWP 17-6: Competition and Bank Fragility

W. Blake Marsh and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 17-05: Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts

Jason Brown

RWP 17-4: Communicating Monetary Policy Rules

Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

RWP 17-3: Assessing Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Across Race, Age, and Educational Attainment

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Department

RWP 17-2: Student Loan Relief Programs: Implications for Borrowers and the Federal Government

Wenhua Di and Kelly Edmiston