Research Working Paper

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RWP 23-02: The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices

Jason Brown, Nida Cakir Melek, Johannes Matschke and Sai Sattiraju

RWP 23-01: Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps versus Matching Efficiency

P. Dean Corbae and Andrew Glover

RWP 22-15: Unconventional Monetary Policy and Local Fiscal Policy

Huixin Bi and Nora Traum

RWP 22-14: Prior Fraud Exposure and Precautionary Credit Market Behavior

Nathan Blascak and Ying Lei Toh

RWP 22-13: The Economic Effects of a Rapid Increase in the Minimum Wage: Evidence from South Korea Experiments

Taeyoung Doh, Kyoo il Kim, Sungil Kim, Hwanoong Lee and Kyungho Song

RWP 22-12: Immigration Restrictions and the Wages of Low-Skilled Labor: Evidence from the 1920s

Jeff Biddle and Elior Cohen

RWP 22-11: Leaning Against the Data: Policymaker Communications under State-Based Forward Guidance

Taeyoung Doh, Joseph Gruber and Dongho Song

RWP 22-10: Effective Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities

Johannes Matschke

RWP 22-09: Credit Guarantee and Fiscal Costs

Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao and Wei Dong

RWP 22-08: Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege

Ron Alquist, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Robert Kahn

RWP 22-07: Attention Allocation and Heterogenous Consumption Responses

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Penghui Yin

RWP 22-06: The Impact of Supply and Demand Changes on Non-Real-Estate Agricultural Loans

Ty Kreitman, Todd Kuethe, David Oppedahl and Francisco Scott

RWP 22-05: Borrowing Based on Great Expectations: Evidence from the Origins of Fracking

Daniel Berkowitz, Andrew J. dup Boslett, Jason Brown and Jeremy Weber

RWP 22-04: Assessing Regulatory Responses to Banking Crises

Padma Sharma

RWP 22-03: The Effect of Housing First Programs on Future Homelessness and Socioeconomic Outcomes

Elior Cohen

RWP 22-02: The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Andrew Smith

RWP 22-01: Supervisory Stringency, Payout Restrictions, and Bank Equity Prices

W. Blake Marsh

RWP 21-19: Shared Destinies? Small Banks and Small Business Consolidation

Claire Brennecke, Stefan Jacewitz and Jonathan Pogach

RWP 21-18: The Income Share of Energy and Substitution: A Macroeconomic Approach

Nida Cakir Melek and Musa Orak

RWP 21-17: Wealth in the Utility Function and Consumption Inequality

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Heng-Fu Zou

RWP 21-16: Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Kristin Forbes

RWP 21-15: Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

RWP 21-14: Safeguarding Research: A Review of Economics Journals’ Preservation Policies for Published Code and Data Files

Courtney Butler, Brett Currier and Kira Lillard

RWP 21-13: International Financial Regulation: The Role of Banking Sector Sizes

Johannes Matschke

RWP 21-12: Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Marginal Effects and Shapley Values

Thomas Cook, Zach Modig and Nathan Palmer

RWP 21-11: Does Access to Free Pre-Kindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?

Elias Ilin, Samantha dup Shampine and Ellyn Terry

RWP 21-10: Macroprudential Policy Interlinkages

Johannes Matschke

RWP 21-09: The Effect of Immigration on Local Labor Markets: Lessons from the 1920s Border Closure

Ran Abramitzky, Philipp Ager, Leah Boustan, Elior Cohen and Casper Hansen

RWP 21-08: Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle

Marina Lovchikova and Johannes Matschke

RWP 21-07: Shadow Insurance? Money Market Fund Investors and Bank Sponsorship

Stefan Jacewitz, Haluk Unal and Chengjun Wu

RWP 21-06: Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment

Cooper Howes

RWP 21-05: Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion

Yulei Luo, Jun Nie, Xiaowen Wang and Eric Young

RWP 21-04: From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC’s New Employment Objective

Brent Bundick and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

RWP 21-03: Government Loan Guarantees during a Crisis: The Effect of the PPP on Bank Lending and Profitability

W. Blake Marsh and Padma Sharma

RWP 21-02: The Size of U.S. Metropolitan Areas

McKenzie Humann and Jordan Rappaport

RWP 21-01: Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency

Amaze Lusompa

RWP 20-23: The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet

Andrew Smith and Victor (Vic) Valcarcel

RWP 20-22: Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

Marianna Kudlyak, Murat Tasci and Didem Tuzemen

RWP 20-21: Bank Competition and Risk-Taking under Market Integration

Kaniska Dam and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 20-20: Big Data Meets the Turbulent Oil Market

Nida Cakir Melek, Charles Calomiris and Harry Mamaysky

RWP 20-19: Flight to Liquidity or Safety? Recent Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market

Huixin Bi and W. Blake Marsh

RWP 20-18: Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in the United States and Canada

Marie-Helene Felt, Fumiko Hayashi, Joanna Stavins and Angelika Welte

RWP 20-17: Why Does Structural Change Accelerate in Recessions? The Credit Reallocation Channel

Cooper Howes

RWP 20-16: Money, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model with the Spirit of Capitalism

Qichun He, Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Heng-Fu Zou

RWP 20-15: Death of Coal and Breath of Life: The Effect of Power Plant Closure on Local Air Quality

Jason Brown and Colton Tousey

RWP 20-14: Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements

Taeyoung Doh, Dongho Song and Shu-Kuei X. Yang

RWP 20-13: The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters

Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan Sanchez

RWP 20-12: Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization in the United States

Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang

RWP 20-11: Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations

Brent Bundick and Andrew Smith

RWP 20-10: Payments Crises and Consequences

Qian Chen, Christoffer Koch, G Gary Richardson and Padma Sharma