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Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis

Michael Bordo (), Michael Dueker and David Wheelock ()

No 2000-005, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence on the hypothesis that aggregate price disturbances cause or worsen financial distress. We construct two annual indexes of financial conditions for the United States covering 1790-1997, and estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on each index using a dynamic ordered probit model. We find that price level shocks contributed to financial instability during 1790-1933, and that inflation rate shocks contributed to financial instability during 1980-97. Our research indicates that the size of the aggregate price shocks needed to qualitatively alter financial conditions depends on the institutional environment, but that a monetary policy focused on price stability would be conducive to financial stability.

Keywords: Economic policy; Inflation (Finance); Prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Published in Economic Inquiry, October 2002, 40(4), pp. 521-38

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Related works:
Journal Article: Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis (2002)
Working Paper: Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis (2000) Downloads
Working Paper: Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis (2000) Downloads
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