The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions

Ruben Hernandez-Murillo and Michael Owyang

No 2004-005, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.

Keywords: Econometrics; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Published in Economics Letters, March 2006, 90(3), pp. 339-5

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Journal Article: The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions (2006)
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DOI: 10.20955/wp.2004.005

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