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Investing for the long-run in European real estate

Carolina Fugazza (), Massimo Guidolin () and Giovanna Nicodano

No 2006-028, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 12 and 44 percent. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only are found to be in the order of 150-300 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework.

Keywords: Real estate investment; Rate of return; European Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-fmk, nep-rmg and nep-ure
Date: 2006
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