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Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements

Jérôme Lahaye, Sébastien Laurent () and Christopher Neely ()

No 2007-032, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: We analyze and assess the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the discontinuities in many assets: stock index futures, bond futures, exchange rates, and gold. We use bi-power variation and the recently proposed non-parametric techniques of Lee and Mykland (2006) to extract jumps. Beyond characterizing the jump and cojump dynamics of many assets, we analyze how news arrival causes jumps and cojumps and estimate limited-dependent-variable models to quantify the impact of surprises. We confirm previous findings that some surprises create jumps. However, many announcements do not create jumps and many jumps are not related to announcements. The propensity of surprises to create jumps differs across asset classes, i.e., exchange rates, bonds, stock index. Payroll announcements are most important on stocks and bonds futures markets. Trade related news often creates cojumps on exchange rate markets.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rates; Bond market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mst and nep-rmg
Date: 2007
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Related works:
Journal Article: Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements (2011)
Working Paper: Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements (2011) Downloads
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