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National and Regional Housing Vacancy: Insights Using Markov-switching Models

Jeffrey Cohen (), Cletus Coughlin () and Jonas C. Crews
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Jonas C. Crews: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

No 2018-7, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: We examine housing vacancy rates over time and space using Markov-switching models. Our theoretical analysis extends a standard search and matching model for housing by incorporating regime-switching behavior and interregional spillovers. Such an approach is strongly supported by our empirical results. Our estimations allow us to examine differences in vacancy rates as well as explore the possibility of asymmetries within and across housing markets, depending on the state/regime of a given housing market. Estimated vacancy rates, conditional on the vacancy regime, vary across regions in all models. Models allowing for interregional effects tend to perform better than models lacking this feature. These models track vacancies well. Noteworthy is their performance during the Great Recession/Financial Crisis. The importance and diversity of interregional effects are demonstrated, and vacancies in a specific Census region are affected by vacancies in other regions. Moreover, the sizes of these effects depend on the vacancy state of the specific region.

Keywords: housing vacancy; Markov switching; search and matching; interregional spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C24 R11 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
Date: 2018-05-11
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DOI: 10.20955/wp.2018.007

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