A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns

Sylvain Leduc and Keith Sill ()

No 01-9, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Abstract: Are the recessionary consequences of oil-price shocks due to oil-price shocks themselves or to contractionary monetary policies that arise in response to inflation concerns engendered by rising oil prices? Can systematic monetary policy be used to alleviate the consequences of oil shocks on the economy? This paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition in which oil and money matter to study these questions. The economy's response to oil-price shocks is examined under a variety of monetary policy rules in environments with flexible and sticky prices. The authors find that easy-inflation policies amplify the negative output response to positive oil shocks and that systematic monetary policy accounts for up to two thirds of the fall in output. On the other hand, the authors show that a monetary policy that targets the (overall) price level substantially alleviates the impact of oil-price shocks.

Keywords: Prices; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba
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Journal Article: A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns (2004)
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