Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey

Sylvain Leduc, Keith Sill () and Tom Stark

No 02-13, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Abstract: Using survey data on expectations, the authors examine whether the post-war data are consistent with theories of a self-fulfilling inflation episode during the 1970s. Among commonly cited factors, oil and fiscal shocks do not appear to have triggered an increase in expected inflation that was subsequently validated by monetary policy. However, the evidence suggests that, prior to 1979, the Fed accommodated temporary shocks to expected inflation, which then led to permanent increases in actual inflation. The authors do not find this behavior in the post-1979 data.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Livingston Survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/asset ... rs/2002/wp02-13r.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey (2007)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedpwp:02-13

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Beth Paul ().