Property Tax Pass-Through to Renters: A Quasi-Experimental Approach

Sarah Baker

No 25-41, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Abstract: Does a landlord’s property tax bill affect a new tenant’s rent? According to standard economic theory, it should not — the law of one price implies that identical rental units in the same market should be priced identically, despite heterogeneity in property tax costs. This paper provides new evidence that a landlord’s property tax bill does affect rent for new tenants, violating the law of one price. I investigate the effect of heterogeneous property tax shocks on rents using a unique, quasi-experimental setting in California. California’s Proposition 13 has created large discrepancies in property tax liability among otherwise similar rental units, and these discrepancies are exacerbated quasi-randomly around a sale. Using a novel, comprehensive dataset on new-tenant rents from the City of Berkeley, I find strong evidence that landlords faced with quasi-random, building-level property tax shocks pass through $0.50–$0.89 per $1 of the property tax shock to renters. The results are robust to the inclusion of landlord size, renovations around a sale, and a property’s purchase price. I propose and empirically motivate an explanatory model of heterogeneity in landlord sophistication that can rationalize the observed positive relationship between rent and property taxes.

Pages: 87
Date: 2025-12-30
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DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2025.41

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