Long-Run Trade Elasticity and the Trade-Comovement Puzzle

Lukasz Drozd, Sergey Kolbin and Jaromir Nosal

No 17-42, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Abstract: We show that the trade-comovement puzzle - theory's failure to account for the positive relation between trade and business cycle synchronization - is intimately related to its counterfactual implication that short- and long-run trade elasticities are equal. Based on this insight, we show that modeling the disconnect between the low short- and the high long-run trade elasticity in consistency with the data is promising in resolving the puzzle. In a broader context, our findings are relevant for analyzing business cycle transmission in a large class of models and caution against the use of static elasticity models in cross-country studies.

Keywords: trade-comovement puzzle; elasticity puzzle; international business cycle synchronization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 61 pages
Date: 2017-11-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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