A characterization of income dynamics in Poland using administrative data

Pawel Chrostek, Lucas van der Velde, Tomasz Zawisza and Piotr Żoch
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Piotr Żoch: Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Piotr Żoch

No 120, GRAPE Working Papers from GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics

Abstract: This paper analyzes earnings dynamics and inequality in Poland from 2000 to 2020 using administrative tax data as part of the Global Repository of Income Dynamics (GRID). Income grew substantially, but inequality was no higher in 2020 than in 2000, having risen through 2006 and fallen thereafter. Earnings changes exhibit pronounced deviations from normality: cyclical skewness, persistent excess kurtosis, and a hockey-stick-shaped dispersion profile across permanent income, steepest at the bottom, flat in the middle, and rising again at the top. We relate percentile-level changes in earnings and earnings growth to the minimum wage, unemployment, and GDP. Minimum-wage growth is strongly associated with gains at the bottom of the cross-sectional distribution and higher unemployment with downward shifts throughout both distributions, while associations with GDP are less stable across specifications. Poland's macroeconomic conditions are related to the location and lower tail of the cross-sectional distribution and to the cyclical asymmetry of earnings changes, while the level of individual earnings risk resembles that of mature European economies.

Keywords: earnings dynamics; income inequality; earnings risk; administrative data; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 E24 E32 J31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lma
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