The research of the fiscal policy problems and experiences in context of spread of the coronavirus infection in 2020

Sergey Belev, Nikita Moguchev, Anna Komarnitskaya (), Tatiana Tishchenko and E. Matveev
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Sergey Belev: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Nikita Moguchev: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Tatiana Tishchenko: RANEPA
E. Matveev: RANEPA

Working Papers from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Abstract: This article presents the main results of research on the topic of the fiscal policy issues and experiences in the context of spread of the coronavirus infection in 2020. This article aims to analyze the effect of the adopted fiscal policy measures on the Russian economy. The main method to measure the performance of fiscal policy in the context of cyclical smoothing is to estimate the fiscal multipliers. The corresponding multipliers for the Russian Federation were calculated from the impulse response functions estimated using BVAR modeling. The values of the multipliers of expenditures on the national economy and of debt financed expenditures are sufficiently small, and multipliers of other categories of public expenditures are even negative. Thus, there is no reason to expect a significant increase in aggregate output from stimulating fiscal policy. Analysis of the policy of "tax holidays" for SMEs showed that the most affected categories of SMEs should be completely exempted from 2019- and 2020-year taxation. In this case budget tax expenses will be insignificant, and the number of bankruptcies will be reduced considerably. Unprecedented in its scale, terms, yields and currency structure, the borrowing policy in the fall of 2020 should be treated as successful. However, there are reasonable doubts that a combination of factors will make it possible to repeat the success in 2021. In this regard, the fiscal policy of the federal government should be adjusted in the following ways: the tax burden on the extraction of solid minerals should be increased, expenditure side of the budget should be optimized and the funds from the National welfare fund should be used to finance the federal budget deficit.

Keywords: Russian economy; Covid-19; fiscal policy; SME sector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 E63 I18 I19 L25 L26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 62 pages
Date: 2021, Revised 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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