Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance
David Bloom and
David Canning ()
PGDA Working Papers from Program on the Global Demography of Aging
The last 150 years have been a period of unusual demographic change. Baby booms occurred in the aftermath of wars in some countries. In others, baby booms occurred as a result of falling infant mortality rates and subsequent reductions in fertility. Baby boom generations produce an echo, in the form of a large cohort of children a generation later, creating long-term demographic disequilibria. These destabilized age structures, together with improvements in health and longevity among the elderly, are producing, for the first time in history, populations with large and growing rates of old age dependency. We argue that transitions from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility can be beneficial to economies as the large baby boom cohorts enter the workforce and save for retirement, while rising longevity has perhaps increased both the incentive to invest in education and to save for retirement. We present estimates of a model of economic growth that highlights the positive effects of demographic change during 1960-95. We also show how Ireland benefited from lower fertility in the form of higher labor supply per capita and how Taiwan benefited through increased savings rates. We emphasize, however, that the realization of the potential benefits associated with the demographic transition appears to be dependent on institutions and policies, requiring the productive employment of the potential workers and savings the transition generates.
Keywords: demography; mortality; fertility; baby boom (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2005/working_paper1.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2005/working_paper1.pdf)
Journal Article: Global demographic change: dimensions and economic significance (2004)
Working Paper: Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gdm:wpaper:0105
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in PGDA Working Papers from Program on the Global Demography of Aging
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Cinzia Smothers (). This e-mail address is bad, please contact .