IHEID Working Papers

From Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies
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18-2022: Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts

Marcela De Castro-Valderrama, Santiago Forero-Alvarado, Nicolas Moreno-Arias and Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga

18-2021: On the Benefits of Repaying

Francesca Caselli, Matilde Faralli, Paolo Manasse and Ugo Panizza

18-2020: Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized

Torsten Ehlers, Mathias Hoffmann and Alexander Raabe

18-2019: Euro Area Sovereign Debt: Restructuring Options

Theresa Arnold, Mitu Gulati and Ugo Panizza

18-2017: Identities and Public Policies: Unintended Effects of Political Reservations for Women in India

Guilhem Cassan and Lore Vandewalle

18-2016: Trade Liberalization and the Great Labor Reallocation

Yuan Zi

18-2015: Billions on the Sidewalk: Improving Savings by Reducing Investment Mistakes

Ugo Panizza

18-2010: The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Cédric Tille

18-2007: Preference Erosion: The case of Bangladesh - A SUR-EC-AR Gravity Model of Trade

Erika Vianna Grossrieder

18-2006: Preferential Trade Liberalization and the Range of Exported Products: The Case of the Euro-Mediterranean FTA

Alberto Amurgo Pacheco

17-2024: Is Foreign Exchange Intervention through derivative instruments effective? An analysis of the Peruvian case

Flavio Abanto Salcedo

17-2023: Measuring the link between cyclical systemic risk and capital adequacy for Ukrainian banking sector

Alona Shmygel

17-2022: Real-Time Pricing and the Cost of Clean Power

Imelda Imelda, Matthias Fripp and Michael Roberts

17-2021: Carbon Taxation and Greenflation- Evidence from Europe and Canada

Maximilian Konradt and Beatrice Weder di Mauro

17-2020: Fiscal Risk and its Drivers An Empirical Analysis

Ugo Panizza

17-2019: Spillover Effects of Foreign Monetary Policy on the Foreign Indebtedness of Banks and Corporations

Paola Morales-Acevedo

17-2017: The Cyclicality of International Public Sector Borrowing in Developing Countries: Does the Lender Matter?

Arturo Galindo and Ugo Panizza

17-2016: Exogenous Macroeconomic Shocks and their Propagation in Bosnia And Herzegovina

Bojan Baskot

17-2015: On the roles of different foreign currencies in European bank lending

Signe Krogstrup and Cédric Tille

17-2014: Liquidity-Driven FDI

Rahul Mukherjee, Linda Tesar and Ron Alquist

17-2010: Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics

Philippe Bacchetta, Cédric Tille and Eric van Wincoop

17-2007: Do unilateral trade preferences help export diversification? An investigation of the impact of European unilateral trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margin of trade

Elisa Gamberoni

17-2006: Trade Liberalisation and Agglomeration with Firm Heterogeneity - Forward and Backward Linkages

Toshihiro Okubo

16-2024: Distress Prediction and Stress Testing of Nonfinancial Firms: Case of Mongolia

Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal and Ninjin Batmunkh

16-2023: Corporate credit growth determinants in Ukraine: bank lending survey data application

Anatolii Hlazunov

16-2022: Interest Rate Caps in an Economy with Formal and Informal Credit Markets

Jorge Pozo

16-2021: The Odious Haitian Independence Debt

Kim Oosterlinck, Ugo Panizza, W. Mark C. Weidemaier and Mitu Gulati

16-2020: Legal Air Cover

Patrick Bolton, Mitu Gulati and Ugo Panizza

16-2019: Forecasting the Albanian short-term inflation through a Bayesian VAR model

Meri Papavangjeli

16-2017: Exchange rate elasticity of exports and the role of institutions

Aygun Garayeva and Gulzar Tahirova

16-2016: The Role of Exchange Rate in Supporting Trade Balance in Vietnam

Lan Huong Hoang

16-2015: Characteristics of the Tunisian Business Cycle and its International Synchronization

Mehdi Bhoury and Mohamed Slim Mouha

16-2014: The risk of self-protection: the role of bank bailout guarantees in channelling sovereign credit risk internationally

Filippo Gori

16-2012: In this paper, I use a stratified Cox Proportional Hazard Model to econometrically evaluate the effects of intra-Africa regional trade cooperation and other underlying factors on Africa`s export survival. Using a highly disaggregated dataset of bilateral trade flows at HS 6 digit level for 49 African countries for the period 1995 to 2009, I obtain 3 key main empirical results. First, intra-Africa regional trade cooperation do increase the likelihood of Africa`s export survival. The results show that the depth of regional integration matters on lowering Africa`s export hazard rates relative to countries that are not in any regional cooperation. Second, I find evidence that supports the “learning by export hypothesis”. That is export experience within regional as well as rest of the world markets increases the likelihood of Africa`s export survival. Finally, results suggests that infrastructure related trade frictions such as costs to export, time to export, and customs procedures to export as well as weak export supporting institutions have a negative effect on Africa`s export survival. Similarly macroeconomic developments particularly exchange rate volatility, financial underdevelopment, “inappropriate” foreign direct investment hurt chances of an African export survival. The results also show that interaction effects between regional integration initiatives and a variety of these trade frictions namely: costs to export, time to export and customs procedures effects on hazard rates diminish in significance with the depth of regional integration over time

Dick Kamuganga

16-2010: The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Rise of the Dollar as an International Currency, 1914-1939

Marc Flandreau Barry Eichengreen

16-2007: Home Market Effect Hypothesis in a Multi-Country World

Nana Bourtchouladze

16-2006: Anti-agglomeration Subsidies with Heterogeneous Firms

Toshihiro Okubo

15-2024: Robust Assessment of External Vulnerabilities in an Emerging Market During Stress Scenarios

Diego Alejandro Martínez Cruz and Philip Rory Symington Alzate

15-2023: Sparse Warcasting

Mihnea Constantinescu

15-2022: Sovereign Spreads and Corporate Taxation

Hayley Pallan

15-2021: The Seen and the Unseen: Impact of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program on Prenatal Sex Selection

Sayli Javadekar and Kritika Saxena

15-2020: A New Financial Stress Index for Ukraine

Vladyslav Filatov

15-2019: Le «fardeau» de la dette publique suisse: Eclairages des recherches scientifiques et pistes pour le futur

Cédric Tille

15-2017: Conditional FAVAR and scenario analysis for a large data: case of Tunisia

Hajer Ben Romdhane and Nahed Ben Tanfous

15-2016: Mortgage Credit: Lending and Borrowing Constraints in a DSGE Framework

Elmer Sánchez León

15-2015: The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Vietnam: A VAR Approach

Bui Van Hai and Tran Thi Minh Trang

15-2014: European champions and competition enforcement:Is DG COMP in ideological denial?

Damien Neven, Vilen Lipatov and Gregor Langus

15-2013: Guest Workers in the Underground Economy

Slobodan Djajić and Alice Mesnard

15-2012: The Linkage between Outcome Differences in Cotton Production and Rural Roads Improvements - A Matching Approach

Dick Kamuganga

15-2011: The Changing Role of Global Financial Brands in the Underwriting of Foreign Government Debt (1815-2010)

Marc Flandreau, Juan Flores Zendejas, Norbert Gaillard and Sebastián Nieto-Parra