AI Meets Trade: Global Linkages and the Cross-country Distribution of the Gains from AI

Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief and Muhammed A. Yildirim
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Muhammed A. Yildirim: Center for International Development at Harvard University

No 272, Growth Lab Working Papers from Harvard's Growth Lab

Abstract: This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI adoption paths and AI capabilities. In our central scenario, AI-driven productivity gains vary widely across countries and are expected to raise per capita real income growth by 0.1–0.95 percentage points annually. The model’s dynamics reveal a key insight: while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper, AI-intensive imports generated by global diffusion, maintaining competitiveness – especially in highly AI-exposed sectors – ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption. As a further channel, the paper quantifies the welfare effects generated by international knowledge spillovers boosting AI adoption of countries with relatively lower AI adoption.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; International trade; Productivity; Technology adoption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C6 E1 F1 O3 O4 O5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:glh:wpfacu:272

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