The use of econometric models in the analysis of arms races and disarmament

Jacques Fontanel () and Ronald Smith
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Jacques Fontanel: CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble

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Abstract: Econometric model have been widely used to analyse both arms races and the economic impact of military expenditure, in order to provide quantitative estimates, hypothesis tests and analysis clarification. The main problem is the validation of the hypothesis, the quality and availability of data, and the model pertinence. It is particularly difficult to cover all the influences of arms, to show the real dynamic of the process. Econometric model needs to be conducted with caution, but it is an essential method of investigation. It reveals further complications and factors that need to be taken into account, leading to more sophisticated explanations able to cover a wider variety of instances.

Keywords: Econometric model; Military expenditures; Race models; Modèles économétriques; Dépenses militaires; Modèles de course aux armements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1986
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Published in ARES, 1986, La course aux armements et le désarmement, 1986, pp.69-82

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