The path towards herd immunity: Predicting COVID-19 vaccination uptake through results from a stated choice study across six continents

Stephane Hess, Emily Lancsar, Petr Mariel, Jürgen Meyerhoff, Fangqing Song, Eline van den Broek-Altenburg, Olufunke Alaba, Gloria Amaris, Julian Arellana (), Leonardo Basso, Jamie Benson, Luis Bravo-Moncayo, Olivier Chanel, Syngjoo Choi, Romain Crastes Dit Sourd, Helena Bettella Cybis, Zack Dorner, Paolo Falco, Luis Garzón-Pérez, Kathryn Glass, Luis Guzman, Zhiran Huang, Elisabeth Huynh, Bongseop Kim, Abisai Konstantinus, Iyaloo Konstantinus, Ana Margarita Larranaga, Alberto Longo, Becky P.Y. Loo, Malte Oehlmann, Vikki O'Neill, Juan de Dios Ortúzar, María José Sanz, Olga Sarmiento, Hazvinei Tamuka Moyo, Steven Tucker, Yacan Wang, Yu Wang, Edward J.D. Webb, Junyi Zhang and Mark H.P. Zuidgeest
Additional contact information
Stephane Hess: University of Leeds
Emily Lancsar: ANU - Australian National University
Fangqing Song: University of Leeds, UCL - University College of London [London]
Eline van den Broek-Altenburg: University of Vermont [Burlington]
Olufunke Alaba: University of Cape Town
Gloria Amaris: University of Leeds, NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim] - NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Leonardo Basso: UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago]
Jamie Benson: University of Vermont [Burlington]
Luis Bravo-Moncayo: UDLA - Universidad de Las Américas [Ecuador], UTN - Universidad Técnica del Norte
Romain Crastes Dit Sourd: University of Leeds
Helena Bettella Cybis: UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul [Porto Alegre]
Luis Garzón-Pérez: UTN - Universidad Técnica del Norte
Kathryn Glass: ANU - Australian National University
Luis Guzman: UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]
Zhiran Huang: HKU - The University of Hong Kong
Elisabeth Huynh: ANU - Australian National University
Bongseop Kim: SNU - Seoul National University [Seoul]
Abisai Konstantinus: Ndatara surveys
Iyaloo Konstantinus: Namibia Institute of Pathology
Ana Margarita Larranaga: UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul [Porto Alegre]
Alberto Longo: QUB - Queen's University [Belfast]
Becky P.Y. Loo: HKU - The University of Hong Kong
Malte Oehlmann: TUM - Technische Universität Munchen - Technical University Munich - Université Technique de Munich
Vikki O'Neill: QUB - Queen's University [Belfast]
Juan de Dios Ortúzar: UC - Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
María José Sanz: BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change, Ikerbasque - Basque Foundation for Science
Olga Sarmiento: UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]
Hazvinei Tamuka Moyo: University of Cape Town
Yacan Wang: BJTU - Beijing Jiaotong University
Yu Wang: BJTU - Beijing Jiaotong University
Edward J.D. Webb: University of Leeds
Junyi Zhang: Hiroshima University
Mark H.P. Zuidgeest: University of Cape Town

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: Despite unprecedented progress in developing COVID-19 vaccines, global vaccination levels needed to reach herd immunity remain a distant target, while new variants keep emerging. Obtaining near universal vaccine uptake relies on understanding and addressing vaccine resistance. Simple questions about vaccine acceptance however ignore that the vaccines being offered vary across countries and even population subgroups, and differ in terms of efficacy and side effects. By using advanced discrete choice models estimated on stated choice data collected in 18 countries/territories across six continents, we show a substantial influence of vaccine characteristics. Uptake increases if more efficacious vaccines (95% vs 60%) are offered (mean across study areas = 3.9%, range of 0.6%–8.1%) or if vaccines offer at least 12 months of protection (mean across study areas = 2.4%, range of 0.2%–5.8%), while an increase in severe side effects (from 0.001% to 0.01%) leads to reduced uptake (mean = −1.3%, range of −0.2% to −3.9%). Additionally, a large share of individuals (mean = 55.2%, range of 28%–75.8%) would delay vaccination by 3 months to obtain a more efficacious (95% vs 60%) vaccine, where this increases further if the low efficacy vaccine has a higher risk (0.01% instead of 0.001%) of severe side effects (mean = 65.9%, range of 41.4%–86.5%). Our work highlights that careful consideration of which vaccines to offer can be beneficial. In support of this, we provide an interactive tool to predict uptake in a country as a function of the vaccines being deployed, and also depending on the levels of infectiousness and severity of circulating variants of COVID-19.

Date: 2022-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm and nep-hea
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-03778395v1
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Published in Social Science & Medicine, 2022, 298, pp.114800. ⟨10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114800⟩

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Journal Article: The path towards herd immunity: Predicting COVID-19 vaccination uptake through results from a stated choice study across six continents (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03778395

DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114800

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