Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Rik van Heerden, Oreane Edelenbosch, Vassilis Daioglou, Thomas Le Gallic (), Luiz Baptista, Alice Di Bella, Francesco Colelli, Johannes Emmerling, Panagiotis Fragkos, Robin Hasse, Johanna Hoppe, Paul Kishimoto, Florian Leblanc (), Julien Lefèvre (), Gunnar Luderer, Giacomo Marangoni, Alessio Mastrucci, Hazel Pettifor, Robert Pietzcker, Pedro Rochedo, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Charlie Wilson, Sonia Yeh, Eleftheria Zisarou and Detlef van Vuuren
Additional contact information
Rik van Heerden: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Oreane Edelenbosch: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
Vassilis Daioglou: Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht], PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Thomas Le Gallic: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées
Luiz Baptista: UNIRIO - Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
Alice Di Bella: POLIMI - Dipartimento di Electtronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria [Politecnico Milano] - POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan], CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Francesco Colelli: University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy], CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Johannes Emmerling: CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Robin Hasse: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin
Johanna Hoppe: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin
Paul Kishimoto: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Florian Leblanc: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Julien Lefèvre: AgroParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Gunnar Luderer: TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin, PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Giacomo Marangoni: TU Delft - Delft University of Technology, CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Alessio Mastrucci: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Hazel Pettifor: OUCE - Oxford University Centre for the Environment - University of Oxford
Robert Pietzcker: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Pedro Rochedo: Khalifa University
Bas van Ruijven: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Roberto Schaeffer: UNIRIO - Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
Charlie Wilson: OUCE - Oxford University Centre for the Environment - University of Oxford, IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Sonia Yeh: Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg]
Detlef van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]

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Abstract: Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

Keywords: Climate-change mitigation; Climate-change policy; Energy and behaviour; Energy efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04985303v1
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Published in Nature Energy, inPress, ⟨10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04985303

DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

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