Managing uncertainty and simulating crisis situations with a cluster gaming system and an artificial intelligence driven decision-support systems

Apprivoiser l'incertitude et simuler des situations de crise par des jeux en grappe et des intelligences artificielles d’assistance aux décisions

Stéphane Goria (), Olivier Buffet () and Vincent Thomas ()
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Stéphane Goria: Crem - Centre de Recherche sur les Médiations - UL - Université de Lorraine
Olivier Buffet: MAIA - Autonomous intelligent machine - INRIA Lorraine - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LORIA - Laboratoire Lorrain de Recherche en Informatique et ses Applications - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - UHP - Université Henri Poincaré - Nancy 1 - Université Nancy 2 - INPL - Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Vincent Thomas: MAIA - Autonomous intelligent machine - INRIA Lorraine - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LORIA - Laboratoire Lorrain de Recherche en Informatique et ses Applications - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - UHP - Université Henri Poincaré - Nancy 1 - Université Nancy 2 - INPL - Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper explores the integration of artificial intelligence for decision support into the field of wargaming and crisis simulations through games. The authors propose an innovative approach based on cluster-structured games, using interconnected microgames to model the systemic complexity of modern crises and avoid the opacity issues associated with digital tools. The proposal first details various factors and variables that can be taken into account when simulating a crisis through a game. It then discusses several decision-support systems, focusing on models based on probabilistic planning, such as Markov decision processes. This choice aims to provide guidance and explainability through explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), enabling players to understand and analyze their own choices as well as those suggested by the AI. Finally, the paper discusses the early stages of applied research using the game "Hostage Rescue Squad".

Keywords: uncertainty management; markov decision process; probabilistic planning; artificial intelligence; explainable artificial intelligence; model driven DSS; decision support system; crisis management; cluster gaming; serious game; wargaming; wargame; planification probabiliste; jeu sérieux; jeu en grappe; intelligence artificielle; intelligence artificielle explicable; intelligence artificielle intelligible; processus décisionnel de markov; système d'aide à la décision; gestion de crise; gestion de l'incertitude (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-23
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05606109v1
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Published in 3e Assises françaises d’étude du wargaming, Sciences Po Lyon; Université Lyon 3; Université Paris Est-Créteil, Apr 2026, Lyon, France

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05606109

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