Measuring sensitive outcomes through ballot-bag surveys

Bruno Crépon (), Ahmed Elsayed () and Jules Gazeaud ()
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Bruno Crépon: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Jules Gazeaud: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations - French Collaborative Institute on Migration [Aubervilliers]

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Abstract: Prevailing methods for measuring sensitive outcomes confront researchers with an inherent bias-variance trade-off: direct questioning is prone to a sensitivity bias, while indirect methods such as list experiments are substantially less precise. We test the ballot-bag, a novel technique that relaxes this trade-off by mitigating bias in direct questioning while improving precision over indirect methods. In an experiment in Egypt, where direct questions on irregular migration are biased, ballot-bag estimates are not statistically different from those from a list experiment but exhibit significantly lower variance. Consequently, treatment effects are highly significant via the ballot-bag and not via the list experiment.

Keywords: Survey methods; Sensitivity bias; Field experiments; Irregular migration; Sensitive behaviors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-10-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05665627v1
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Published in American Economic Review: Insights, 2026

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05665627

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