Locked into Copenhagen pledges -- Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Keywan Riahi, Elmar Kriegler, Nils Johnson, Christoph Bertram, Michel den Elzen, Jiyong Eom, Michiel Schaeffer, Jae Edmonds, Morna Isaac, Volker Krey, Thomas Longden, Gunnar Luderer, Aurélie Méjean, David L Mccollum, Silvana Mima (), Hal Turton, Detlef van Vuuren, Kenichi Wada, Valentina Bosetti, Pantelis Capros, Patrick Criqui (), Meriem Hamdi-Cherif (), Mikiko Kainuma and Ottmar Edenhofer
Additional contact information
Keywan Riahi: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Elmar Kriegler: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Nils Johnson: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Christoph Bertram: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Michel den Elzen: RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
Jiyong Eom: Joint Global Change Research Institute - Joint Global Change Research Institute
Michiel Schaeffer: WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
Jae Edmonds: Joint Global Change Research Institute - Joint Global Change Research Institute
Morna Isaac: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Volker Krey: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Gunnar Luderer: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
David L Mccollum: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Silvana Mima: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Hal Turton: PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
Detlef van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Kenichi Wada: RITE - Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth [Kyoto]
Patrick Criqui: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Meriem Hamdi-Cherif: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Mikiko Kainuma: NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies

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Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

Keywords: Copenhagen pledges; climate policy; mitigation; AMPERE; greenhouse gas emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (57)

Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, 90, pp.8-23. ⟨10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00962366

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016

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