Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point

Marcello Basili and Alain Chateauneuf

PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) from HAL

Abstract: This paper considers the issue of aggregation of experts' opinions expressed through not necessarily independent and even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors. The paper addresses the elicitation of the consensus distribution by introducing the Steiner point of the set of all common distributions among experts and derives its conditional probabilities on future events.

Keywords: Epsilon contamination capacities; Steiner point; Full Bayesian updating; Multiple priors; Capacities; Consensus distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2020, 123, pp.17-25. ⟨10.1016/j.ijar.2020.04.005⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point (2020)
Working Paper: Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03260206

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2020.04.005

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