ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions

Paul Hubert

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Abstract: The European Central Bank publishes inflation projections quarterly and we aim to establish empirically whether they influence private inflation forecasts and whether they may be considered as an enhanced means of implementing policy decisions by facilitating private agents' information processing. We provide original evidence that ECB inflation projections do influence private inflation expectations positively, and that ECB projections convey signals about future ECB rate movements. This paper suggests that ECB projections enable private agents to correctly interpret and predict policy decisions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords: monetary policy; ECB; private forecasts; structural VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03399287
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Published in Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 34 (7), pp.574 - 587. ⟨10.1002/for.2356⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions (2015)
Working Paper: ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions (2015)
Working Paper: ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03399287

DOI: 10.1002/for.2356

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