Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries

Giorgio Fagiolo (), Mauro Napoletano and Andrea Roventini

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Abstract: This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well approximated by symmetric exponential power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian (but with finite moments of any order). Fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of: (i) the way we measure aggregate output; (ii) the family of densities employed in the estimation; (iii) the length of time lags used to compute growth rates. We also show that fat tails still characterize output growth-rate distributions even after one washes away outliers, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity.

Date: 2008-08
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Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2008, 23 (5), pp.639 - 669. ⟨10.1002/jae.1003⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries (2008)
Working Paper: Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries (2008)
Working Paper: Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? Some evidence from OECD countries (2006)
Working Paper: Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? Some evidence from OECD countries (2006)
Working Paper: Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries (2006)
Working Paper: Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03417062

DOI: 10.1002/jae.1003

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