France: croissance précaire

Eric Heyer, Christophe Blot (), Marion Cochard (), Hervé Péléraux () and Mathieu Plane
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: The French economy has recently shown some signs of recovery after four consecutive quarters of decrease in growth. GDP ceased to decline in the second quarter of 2009 (0.3%) and positive growth would be confirmed in the second half of the year as world trade recently resumed, financial conditions have eased and economic sentiment indicators have strengthened. But growth would remain precarious in 2010. Internal demand would still be constrained by the continuous rise in unemployment and by the outstandingly low level of capacity utilization. The rebound of the car sales in Europe, which have boosted French exports, would come to an end since "scrapping bonus" adopted in several EU countries will progressively run out. With annual growth reaching 0.8% in 2010, output gap will widen and public finances will still deteriorate.

Keywords: Prévisions macroéconomiques françaises; PIB français (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03460038
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2009, 111, pp.173 - 237. ⟨10.3917/reof.111.0173⟩

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Working Paper: France: croissance précaire (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03460038

DOI: 10.3917/reof.111.0173

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