Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance

Françoise Charpin ()
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Françoise Charpin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: In the number 108 of the OFCE review, nowcasting factor models of French growth were proposed and assessed in pseudo real time over the period 2001-2007. The financial crisis has reduced their accuracy. The new basis of the French quarterly accounts published mid-may 2011 modifies also the results noticeably because it concerns GDP growth over the whole estimation period. Thus, it is the opportunity to reassess these models presented in Charpin (2009). It is also the occasion to confront them to other models by comparing their performance in pseudo real time over the period 2001 Q1 – 2011 Q1.

Keywords: Prévision du PIB; Modèles à facteurs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03461522
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2011, 118, pp.129 - 142. ⟨10.3917/reof.118.0129⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03461522

DOI: 10.3917/reof.118.0129

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