Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil

Jérôme Sgard (jerome.sgard@sciencespo.fr)
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Jérôme Sgard: CERI - Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This papers analyses the stabilisation programes which brought to an end twenty years of high or hyper-inflation, first in Argentina (1991), then in Brazil (1994). Rather than a full disindexation of the economy, as was aimed by the heteredox strategies of the mid-1980's, this new generation of programes aimed at stabilising nominal evolution via the full indexation of the price structure. In Argentina, this took the form of a rigid bimonetary regime, under the form of a rather classic Currency Board. In Brazil, the Piano Real has reconstructed in two steps a fully-fledged, single national currency : first the unit of account function was stabilised, then the unit of payment was exchanged through a standard monetary reform. A remarquable aspect of these two experiences is that, however the con­trast between their respective institutionnal arrangements, the actual constraints bearing on policy makers are very close : most of all, the strength of underlying indexation mechanisms, as the low level of monetisation imply that foreign exchange policy is extremely difficult to manage. In both countries, a sudden, dis­crete devaluation may rapidly cause a sharp acceleration of inflation. This should remain as a long-term sequel of past high inflation, which already imposes heavy constraints on micro-level, real adjustment.

Keywords: Inflation; Argentine; Brésil; Désindexation de l'économique; Stabilisation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
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Published in Revue Economique, 1998, 49 (1), pp.239 - 256. ⟨10.2307/3502504⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03585833

DOI: 10.2307/3502504

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