Growth up Against Fiscal Recovery. The 2024-2025 outlook for the French economy

Mathieu Plane (), Elliot Aurissergues (), Bruno Coquet (), Magali Dauvin (), Elsa Feltz, Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol (), Pierre Madec () and Raul Sampognaro ()
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Mathieu Plane: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Elliot Aurissergues: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Bruno Coquet: DARES - Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Magali Dauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Pierre Madec: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Raul Sampognaro: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: The OFCE's forecast for France's GDP growth in the coming years is 1.1% for 2024 and 0.8% for 2025. The impact of the violent shocks experienced by the French economy is gradually fading, as can be seen by slowing inflation, which should average 1.5% in 2025. This will permit the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, which will boost the economy in 2025 by 0.4 point of GDP. The deterioration in the public finances was not well anticipated, which, amidst today's political instability, will require a sharp tightening of the budget. Reducing the structural deficit will trim the economy by 0.8 GDP point in 2025.

Date: 2024-10-16
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Published in OFCE Policy Brief, 2024, 139, pp.1-28

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