Rational heuristics? Expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents

Giovanni Dosi, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, Joseph Stiglitz and Tania Treibich

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Abstract: We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information, coordination hurdles, and structural breaks. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second-best option but rather "rational" responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments.

Date: 2020
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03046977v1
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Published in Economic Inquiry, 2020, 58 (3), pp.1487-1516. ⟨10.1111/ecin.12897⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: RATIONAL HEURISTICS? EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIORS IN EVOLVING ECONOMIES WITH HETEROGENEOUS INTERACTING AGENTS (2020)
Working Paper: Rational heuristics? Expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents (2020)
Working Paper: Rational Heuristics? Expectations and Behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents (2020)
Working Paper: Rational Heuristics ? Expectations and behaviours in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents (2017)
Working Paper: Rational Heuristics ? Expectations and behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous interacting agents (2017)
Working Paper: Rational Heuristics ? Expectations and behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous interacting agents (2017)
Working Paper: Rational Heuristics? Expectations and Behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:halshs-03046977

DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12897

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