Fear and loathing on the campaign trail 2016-18: migrants, refugees and the rise of far right populism

Peur et haine dans la campagne électorale 2016-18: migrants, réfugiés et la montée du populisme d’extrême droite

Max Viskanic ()
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Max Viskanic: ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The first chapter analyses the impact of a relatively large and homogeneous shock of Polish immigrants in the UK and what impact said shock had on the Brexit vote in 2016. I find that Polish migration to the United Kingdom has increased voting for Brexit, but not enough to sway the vote for Leave. In order to achieve exogenous variation in the allocation of Polish immigrants I rely on the formation of migrant networks close to War Resettlement Camps created for Polish soldiers after WWII, which I collect from the National archives. In the second chapter I use the dismantlement of the illegal Migrants camp close to Calais and the subsequent redistribution of migrants to study the impact to the exposure to few migrants over a short amount of time. I find that the exposure to few migrants decreases the voting for the Front National, but that this effect dissipates if large migrant groups are resettled. In this case contact as well as relative group size play an important role in explaining native's reactions to migrants. In the last chapter I analyse the impact of the refugee crisis on the demand and supply of politics in Italy. I show that the opening of small reception centres for migrants in Italy have decreased voting for the extreme right, decreased hate crimes against immigrants as well as increased votes for left wing parties. The effects are mostly driven by municipalities, which are less connected to the internet. This shows the differential amplification effect digital media can have vis-a-vis traditional media. Furthermore, I find that mayors from extreme right wing parties close and are less likely to open reception centres than other politicians, rationally reacting to their decreased political support.

Keywords: Migrants; Refugees; Far Right; Populism; Réfugiés; Extrême droite; Populisme (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-10-17
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://theses.hal.science/tel-03369802
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Published in Economics and Finance. Institut d'études politiques de paris - Sciences Po, 2019. English. ⟨NNT : 2019IEPP0049⟩

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