A quantitative history of trade globalization: 1827-2012

Hugot, Jules

A quantitative history of trade globalization: 1827-2012

Une histoire quantitative de la mondialisation commerciale: 1827-2012

Abstract: This thesis relies on a data set that I put together. The data set gathers trade statistics, GDP, exchange rate and tariff data as well as gravity-related variables including distance, colonial and linguistic links. In chapter 2, I show that the globalization of the nineteenth century had already begun in the 1840s in Europe, while it only began in the late nineteenth century for the rest of the world. In chapter 3, I show that the border effect was halved over the course of both the First and the Second Globalization. I also find that the distance effect roughly doubled during both periods of globalization. In chapter 4, I show that the trade elasticity did not change significantly over the course of the First Globalization. In chapter 5, I show that Britain benefited from most of the trade creating effect of the Suez Canal, while the western coast of Latin America benefited from about 40% of the trade effect of the Panama Canal. I also show that time dimension estimates of the distance elasticity make it possible to reconcile the distance elasticity with the common estimates for its components: the trade elasticity and the elasticity of trade costs to shipping distance.

Keywords: Globalization -- Economic aspects; Gravity; Trade costs; Distance effect; Mondialisation; Gravité; Coûts de commerce; Effet distance; Histoire économique; Commerce international (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-06-30
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Published in Economics and Finance. Institut d'études politiques de Paris - Sciences Po, 2015. English. ⟨NNT : 2015IEPP0055⟩

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